On August 18, former Vice President Biden was officially nominated as the presidential candidate of this year. The US presidential election will be held on November 3 this year against the current Republican president trump. There is no doubt that the election results will have an important impact on investors, because the policy mix adopted by the next government will directly have a major impact on the future trend of the Wall Street stock market. Interestingly, and vice versa, before election day, the rise and fall of Wall Street stock market is also regarded as an important indicator of the election results. Although the stock market is not an economy, both the stock market and the economy have played a decisive role in the presidential election results. For example, according to historical data, avoiding recession is a key indicator for re-election in the two years before the election. In the past 100 years, at least, re elected presidents have avoided recession, except for Calvin Coolidge, the 30th president of the United States. In 1923, due to the sudden death of Warren G. Harding, the then US vice president, who took over the presidency and was subsequently re elected. Like the economy, the performance of the stock market is also an important signal of the election results. According to strategas research partners, since 1984, the U.S. stock market has predicted every presidential election with 100% accuracy. If you go back to 1928, the prediction accuracy of S & P 500 is as high as 87%. How to predict the election results based on the S & P 500 trend? Specifically, if the S & P 500 index goes up three months before the election, the incumbent party will win; otherwise, the incumbent party will lose the election. In other words, the trend of the line index has begun to enter the three-month countdown. In contrast to the stock market in 1956, the stock market’s mistakes occurred three times before the general election of 1956. < / P > < p > although it is still too early to focus on the results of the stock market based on three months, the performance of the Wall Street stock market on August 18 was indeed remarkable. On the same day, the S & P 500 index closed at a record high, thus completely erasing the decline since the epidemic and re entering the bull market, making this bear market one of the shortest bear markets in the history of US stocks. If the stock market performance is excluded, judging from the historical law of the U.S. presidential election, reelection itself is a probability event. According to J.P. Morgan asset management’s conclusion, history favors the re-election of current presidents. Since 1932, nearly three-quarters of current presidents have been re elected successfully, unless there is a recession during their tenure. But it is worth noting that for this year, Trump’s approval rating is lower than that of other incumbent presidents who have been re elected. < / P > < p > let’s take a look at the impact of the US election on the Wall Street stock market. According to the Bank of America statistics, since 1952, if the president changes from Republican to Republican in the election, the S & P 500 index has declined in the following three months or even a year (except 1960). If the incumbent president is re elected, the stock market will move better. Of course, the above statistics can not fully analyze the future trend, because a series of factors including market trend, geopolitical factors, Federal Reserve Policy and the black swan incident are the key points to determine the real trend of the market. At present, for Trump and Biden, who are in a fierce battle, the view of the US stock trend is still polarized. One view is that the victory or reversal of the trump tax cuts policy, US shares or 20% decline; another group believes that the victory will boost the stock market by 12%. < / P > < p > market participants with the first view believe that Trump’s policy is good for Wall Street. If Biden wins, he has promised to withdraw Trump’s tax cuts for the rich and businesses, and raise the top income tax rate and corporate tax, which may be a negative for US stocks. Based on this analysis, if you win, the Wall Street stock market may fall about 20%. To be sure, the rise in U.S. stocks is largely due to the doubling of P / E ratio, which is attributed to some of Trump’s policies, including tax cuts on corporate income tax, deregulation of financial institutions, urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and print a lot of money, and increase US borrowing. However, market participants who hold opposite opinions believe that the victory will boost US stocks by 12% for the simple reason that borrowing may be increased by more. More borrowing creates more liquidity and more expenditure, and the increase of expenditure will offset the impact of tax increase on corporate profits to a certain extent. However, in any case, judging from Biden’s tax policy, this is something that Wall Street and U.S. stock investors are not willing to see. < / P > < p > at the same time, Wall Street analysts also believe that a win in November may benefit stocks. As public support for the reform has increased, several stock markets have made impressive gains in the past week. Investment bank Cowen analyst Vivien Azer said in August that Biden’s nomination as the presidential candidate was a positive signal for the industry, with investors’ confidence boosted by the surge in industry sales during the epidemic amid months of stock market declines and layoffs. John zamparo, an analyst at CIBC, agrees that a win would not only boost U.S. companies, but also boost Canadian companies’ interest in expanding the U.S. market. Based on the above views, analysts selected seven stocks including green thumb industries, curaleaf and cresco labs for investors’ reference. For investors in US stocks, the safest strategy should be to focus on companies that have already led the North American industry and achieve stable profits. In view of the public’s disagreement on Trump’s handling of the epidemic and the sudden epidemic and Freud incident, perhaps it is not enough to predict the outcome of this year’s presidential election only through the trend of US stocks. The uncertainty of the presidential election also makes the outlook of Wall Street stock market a bit confusing. UBS believes that the presidential election may cause a big shock to US stocks, and will help gold, treasury bonds and other safe haven assets to go higher, and investors should be prepared for strong market volatility. Darrow wealth management also believes that historical data suggest that stock market volatility will intensify in the months leading up to the election. This is logical because markets don’t like uncertainty. For investors, we should separate the investment object from personal political opinions, and weigh the investment behavior objectively and rationally. < p > < p > historical data also show that U.S. stock and bond markets performed better during the election year than the following year, but for global stocks, the opposite is true. In the US presidential election year, the following year’s return was far better than the election year’s performance. What’s more interesting is that the performance of global stock markets also shows certain regular changes during the tenure of different ruling parties. According to the statistics of dimensional Fund Advisors, since 1973, the annualized return of international developed market stocks has been positive during the tenure of office. However, since 1989, the probability of positive annualized return of emerging market stocks in the tenure of office is only 50%, while it is 100% during the Republican administration. Of course, historical data can only be used as a reference, because many factors will affect the stock market, including unexpected natural disasters and man-made political instability. We can always use history as a guide, but the future is never constrained.