Affected by the epidemic, the 4-day US Conference opened online for the first time on the evening of 17th local time. It is worth noting that senior Republicans also appeared at the Convention, online “shelling” incumbent president trump. “Unite the United States” is the theme of this year’s National Congress. Michelle Obama, the former first lady of the United States, said bluntly that trump had “thrown the country into chaos”. She also specially wore a necklace of letters representing “voting” to appeal to voters to support Biden. However, it is still unknown whether this online speech without a live audience can move the American people. Next, former Presidents Obama and Clinton, 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and others will also give speeches to support Biden during the conference. < / P > < p > in the face of repeated “shelling”, trump chose “positive” and also chose to hold campaign in Wisconsin, a key swing state. Trump claimed that if he lost, the only reason was that “the election was manipulated.”. But as of this week, Wisconsin has received more than one million absentee primary requests, four times as many as in 2015. Mail voting is the main way of absentee voting. Therefore, on that day, trump had to reiterate the view that mail voting would lead to fraud. Due to the impact of the epidemic, 46 states in the United States have agreed to expand the scope of postal ballots. American voters who vote by mail are sure to reach an all-time high in this election. Although there is no evidence to prove that this method may lead to fraud, trump has repeatedly publicized this view. < p > < p > according to US media reports, the U.S. postmaster general, who took office two months ago, is a “staunch fan” of Trump’s popularity of the Republican Party. After taking office, he cut a lot of costs, resulting in the mail can not be handled in time. Some critics say the move may be in line with Trump’s preparations for non recognition of the results, while the house of Representatives is planning to push for the passage of a bill including a $25 billion allocation. < p > < p > then, how will the victory or defeat of the two parties around the post office change the direction of the election? In response, Diao Daming, a researcher at the national development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that postal voting actually brought uncertainty to both parties. The voting day of the US general election is usually on Tuesday, which means that for some working class, even some ethnic minorities, they may not be able to participate in the formal voting on such a working day. Then, if we can let these people participate in the voting more freely by mail, then these groups are exactly what the Republican Party regards as the basic base of voters. In this case, including Trump’s move to replace the head of the U. However, at least 34 states in the United States and Washington, D.C., are allowed to vote by mail without any reason. The number of voters involved is 180 million, accounting for more than 70%. Therefore, postal voting will affect voters of both parties simultaneously. On the other hand, according to the US cable survey, Biden’s lead over trump has shrunk significantly since June, with only 50% to 46%, leading by 4 percentage points. Last week, Biden formally nominated Senator Harris as the vice presidential candidate. Because she is African American and of Indian and Jamaican origin, Harris is believed to be able to make up for Biden’s shortcomings in women’s, Asian and African American votes. However, some people think that the appearance of Harris will stimulate the enthusiasm of Trump’s basic set, that is, the “old white man”. According to Reuters, 56% of voters have positive impressions of Biden and Harris, compared with 42% of trump and 47% of current Vice President burns. Can Harris really help Biden? Diao Daming believes that Harris is a safe choice for Biden. But Harris, her popularity is not high, in this case, the so-called high popularity is basically equivalent to playing good cards. On the contrary, Trump or burns has done a lot of things that make the ordinary public or the traditional elites of American politics unthinkable during their three years in power, but they still get about 40% favorable ratings. I’m afraid it means that about 40% of them are so-called “true love”. Generally speaking, whether or not favoritism can be converted into votes, or who can be more effectively converted into votes, is the core. According to Diao Daming’s analysis, up to now, although Trump’s anti epidemic and epidemic prevention are not favorable, the satisfaction with Trump’s response to the epidemic situation is still around 30%, and the dissatisfaction has not reached 60%. This means that, in fact, the epidemic has not broken through Trump’s low but stable satisfaction over the past three years, so who can win the election will be another matter.