On the Republican side, Trump’s election is in short supply and the red light is flashing. Since mid June, almost all opinion polls have shown that he lags far behind Biden. What’s more, the swing states, which are crucial to the election results, are increasingly running against him. What’s more, trump is also in trouble in some so-called “Red States” regarded as Republican candidates. For example, Georgia has been supporting Republican candidates since 1992, but the latest poll shows that Biden and Trump’s support ratio in the state has been evenly divided. In the past, most voters agreed with Biden more on the first two issues, while on economic management issues, trump was slightly better than others. In recent polls, however, trump has lost the edge even on the third issue. The best news for the trump team is that “today is not election day”; otherwise, he will lose. However, it is still too early to say that trump is “dead”. After all, polls have limitations – if polls are accurate enough, trump won’t win the 2016 U.S. election, and we need to be careful when using polls to predict election results. Trump has been in power for more than three years, and has been tempered by the “Russia door” and the impeachment of the parliament. All of them have been able to turn their fortunes into good, which is called “non stick” president. At present, despite the decline in the polls, his support rate in the party is still stable and considerable. Besides, he’s not short of money, which is too important for the presidential campaign. < / P > < p > more importantly, trump has no way out – once he is defeated, trouble will come to his door, and several ongoing criminal investigations may ruin his reputation or even put him in jail. In this situation, he made a series of strange moves to win in the chaos: < / P > < p > he did not hesitate to intensify the social contradictions in the United States, set the social conflicts triggered by the death of black Freud as “the battle for the defense of American tradition”, who claimed to be the guardian of “law and order”, and dispatched a large number of federal personnel to the controlled areas to suppress the “BLM” campaign The fear of social change among the social classes, especially the white people. One of them. First, he and the party’s long-standing conservative economic views, bypassing Congress with executive orders, introduced measures such as extending unemployment extra benefits and suspending federal income tax to buy people’s hearts, so as to influence the final voting choice of “shaken people”. < p > < p > he criticized the already existing “mail vote”, claiming that a large number of mail votes would lead to unfair elections. In this way, it not only interferes with the traditional voters’ willingness and way of voting, but also provides a source of legitimacy for him to challenge the election results once he is defeated. The third is that. On the issue of epidemic control, trump basically gave up the leading role and responsibility of the federal government, and instead put his bet on the introduction of vaccines or specific drugs before the election in order to “turn the tables” at one stroke. This is the fourth. < / P > < p > in addition, it is playing the “China card”. It is nothing new for us candidates of both parties to play the “China card” in election year, but there are not many such as trump who constantly break the red line and the bottom line. Through the constant attacks on China, he is not only shaping his own image of “tough guy”, but also creating an atmosphere of “common hatred against the enemy and uniting with the outside world” to gather the support of voters. < / P > < p > the above-mentioned election routines may have limited effect on individual use, but as a set of combination boxing, combined with Trump’s extraordinary ability to guide the deer and demagogue the people, it still has certain lethality. < / P > < p > now the question is, are these election routines “enough”? In less than 80 days, will trump be able to reverse the decline and recreate the victory in 2016? Our view is that politics is an art, and public opinion is like running water. No possibility can be ruled out until the day of voting. < / P > < p > however, history will not simply repeat, 2020 is not 2016. There are several important factors this year that are very different from 2016, making it difficult for trump to replicate the victory he won four years ago – unless Biden and his group commit “suicide” blunders. The biggest difference is that trump was a challenger in 2016 and in power in 2020. As a governor, it is your credit to do well and your fault to do it badly. Since Trump came to power, there have been many crises, but it seems that all of them can be saved from danger. It is expected that in the most critical election year, when dealing with the new crown crisis, he left Mecheng, resulting in the epidemic out of control and the popularity plummeted. As a once-in-a-century public health crisis, the new crown epidemic, which affects all regions and groups of people, is different from the relatively simple political crisis such as “Russia door” and “telephone door” in Ukraine. As a once-in-a-century public health crisis, the new crown epidemic has the characteristics of being sudden, uncertain and difficult to deal with. As the development of the epidemic situation is not dominated by political logic or consideration, its response can not be political. It must rely on scientific analysis, rational prevention and control, and also rely on the coordination of governments at all levels and social mobilization. < / P > < p > the United States has advanced medical research and development capabilities, and has the world’s first national epidemic Management Agency (CDC, the United States Center for Disease Control and prevention). In addition to the experience and lessons accumulated in dealing with Ebola and H1N1, it is reasonable to say that in terms of coping with the new epidemic situation, even if it does not take the lead in other countries, it should not fall behind a lot. However, the figures do not understand politics – the United States, with 4% of the world’s population, accounts for 24% of the newly diagnosed cases and 22% of the deaths in the world. Moreover, the epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled. On the day of the deadline, there were 40022 new cases and 542 new deaths in the United States. Judging by any standard, the U.S. response to the epidemic is a disaster, incompatible with its status as the world’s first power. For this, President trump is certainly to blame. Most Americans believe that it is Trump’s political philosophy, ruling style and behavior that make the United States make mistakes again and again in response to the new coronation epidemic, resulting in out of control. Basically, trump treats the epidemic as a political issue. The ultimate consideration is whether it is good for his personal image and re-election, whether it is to downplay the severity of the new crown epidemic at the beginning, or to force a comprehensive economic restart in spite of the opinions of medical consultants. Although the white house set up the new epidemic management team as early as February this year, trump seems more concerned about how to keep himself in the media spotlight forever. He rarely participated in the meetings of the epidemic management team, but rarely was he absent from the news conference to various media occasions, and even fought with the media alone, trying to create the image that everything was under control. It should be said that Trump’s system worked well in the past. Under the situation of continuous “polarization” of American politics, trump usually politicizes the governance problems, which actually forces the Republican Party to make a choice between him and his opponents, so as to help him through one political difficulty after another. However, this way to deal with the new crown crisis, but from the beginning, the seeds of failure. When the U.S. epidemic situation improved slightly in mid May, trump was eager to restart the economy and even called on supporters to “liberate” states that refused to do so. Results since mid June, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States has soared to almost every state. In the words of Dr. Burke, coordinator of the White House’s new outbreak management team, the new outbreak has entered a new stage in the United States. The virus “spreads rapidly”, not only in big cities, suburbs and rural areas, but also in large cities, suburbs and rural areas. As soon as everyone goes out, it is assumed that you may be infected. In early May, 54% of the people thought that the government had not handled the epidemic properly. After the outbreak worsened again at the end of June, the number rose to 65%. Dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the epidemic situation soon projected on Trump’s public opinion support. It can be said that if trump loses the election in November, it is largely due to the new crown epidemic. In the general election in the plague period, great changes have taken place in the form and content of the election campaign, which is another difference between 2020 and 2016. Traditionally, the most important part of the U.S. general election is a direct contest between candidates from both parties. The president seeking re-election has a strong “the benefit of” As president, trump can not only guide the media to pay attention to the focus and the rhythm of reports, but also accurately create topics by signing decrees, issuing administrative orders, and announcing personnel changes. Trump is more proficient than any other president in the past. As for mass campaign rallies and rallies, trump has also played well enough to stimulate the enthusiasm of the participants. It is generally believed that compared with Biden, trump has obvious advantages in election resources, energy and strategy. It’s a pity that the number of people is not as good as that of heaven. The epidemic situation of the new crown has greatly reduced all kinds of propaganda activities. Even the national nomination conference of the two parties has been changed into an online video conference (), and the scale of the party has been greatly reduced (Republican Party). Originally, trump planned to resume his campaign in June. Unexpectedly, the public was not enthusiastic and was accused of causing the spread of the virus, so he had to stop here. Although trump still has a lot more opportunities than Biden, he can’t be as unrestrained and unrestrained as he was at the rally, and he only feels good when he has a lot of fan interaction. < / P > < p > in most cases, trump can only take the form of a press conference. The press conference is not a talk show, and Trump’s relationship with the mainstream media is notoriously poor. In the face of severe questioning from reporters, he often answers the questions beyond the question and tells a lot of lies. On the contrary, his eloquent “strength” has become a “soft rib” without knowing what he wants the public to accept. On the contrary, trump is often attacked and ridiculed. Most voters said they did not believe Trump’s information on issues such as the new coronation epidemic. In contrast, Biden team adopted the strategy of “shrinking”. Generally speaking, candidates, especially challengers, in order to expand their influence and make up for the lack of publicity in public places, usually try their best to seize and create opportunities to have direct contact with the media and voters as much as possible. However, in line with the different characteristics of this year’s election, Biden conscientiously carried out “social alienation”, rarely attended public activities, mainly through video to explain his ruling philosophy and policy propositions to voters. Although he was ridiculed as a “candidate for president in the basement”, he was still calm and calm, which was in sharp contrast to trump’s high-profile irritability. At present, Biden’s strategy of “silence is better than voice at this time” is a success. On the one hand, Biden’s popularity is high, and it’s not a big loss to him if he doesn’t appear on the stage; on the other hand, Biden is famous for his old age and clumsy mouth. He says less and makes more mistakes, making trump a target of the media. Why not?