There are more vicious implications behind the US’s total ban on Huawei’s access to chips

On the evening of August 17, the U. Among the 38 Huawei subsidiaries in 21 new countries / regions, most of them are cloud computing and OpenLab platform related companies. < p > < p > the announcement also directly pointed out that this amendment will limit Huawei’s access to chip supply. The object of revision is the “foreign produced direct product rule (FDP)” which was just upgraded on May 16. < / P > < p > on the one hand, if foreign products are based on U.S. software or technology and are incorporated into or used in the “products” or “development” of Huawei’s subsidiaries (entity list), no matter whether Huawei’s R & D and production of parts, components or equipment are produced, purchased and ordered by Huawei, they will be subject to restrictions and need to obtain licenses. < / P > < p > on the other hand, if the Huawei subsidiary on the list of entities is a party to the transaction, it will also need to obtain a license, regardless of its identity as “buyer”, “intermediate consignee”, “final receiver” or “end user”. < / P > < p > this means that the U.S. further restricts Huawei’s access to chips, and directly restricts chips from foreign manufacturers that use US software and technology to develop or manufacture chips. Gu Wenjun, chief analyst of xinmou, told 21tech: “this is a patch in the United States to restrict Huawei’s policy. Completely block Huawei’s possibility of acquiring chips. ” The core of the FDP revision on May 16 is that wafer manufacturers outside the United States that produce chips for Huawei need to apply for licenses as long as they use American semiconductor production equipment. Later, it was pointed out that there were “loopholes” and ambiguities in the rules, and Huawei could still buy chips from MediaTek, Samsung, zhanrui and other enterprises other than US enterprises. < p > < p > now, the U.S. Department of Commerce has directly blocked the “loophole”, which is simply to cut off the supply of third-party chip companies other than the US chip manufacturers to Huawei. The U.S. sanctions directly extend from the chip production side to the chip design manufacturers, as well as the use of EDA and other design software. Moreover, the target of attack also extends from Huawei mobile phone end and communication equipment end to the emerging cloud computing industry. The Ministry of Commerce said the new measures would take effect immediately. At present, Huawei has not responded to this, while MediaTek told 21tech that the company is paying close attention to changes in US export control rules and consulting external legal advisers to ensure compliance with the relevant rules. According to the existing information assessment, there is no significant impact on the company’s short-term operation. < p > < p > affected by the news, the share price of MediaTek once fell by 10%. John Neuffer, chairman and CEO of the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), said on his website that widespread restrictions on commercial chip sales would cause serious damage to the US semiconductor industry. However, it is worth noting that this new regulation is more ferocious in that it means that as long as the products using American software and technology are not allowed to be supplied to Huawei without the permission of the United States. < / P > < p > on the one hand, the new regulations are not only aimed at chips, but also may affect the components and software in mobile phones, computers, base stations and other products. As long as US software or technology is used, it is strictly required to apply for a license from the United States. < / P > < p > at the beginning of the U.S. crackdown, Huawei’s “a” action has been carried out. For example, the base station can not use American components, and in mobile phones, Fomalhaut technology, a Japanese research company According to solutions, the 5g version of Huawei’s top-end smartphone “mate 30” has increased from about 25% to about 42% in terms of the amount of money compared with the original model before the sanctions, while the use rate of parts made in the United States has decreased from about 11% to about 1%. Instead, Huawei designed its own products and purchased them from suppliers outside the United States such as Japan. However, according to the current regulations, even Japanese and Korean suppliers may be restricted in the future. Among various components and software products, some of them contain American technology. It can be seen that the United States has further tightened its control over the transactions between non US enterprises and Huawei. On the other hand, the criteria for the traceability of software and technology in the United States are still in the hands of the United States. The original text of the announcement is “… U.S. software or technology is the basis for a foreign produced item…” Some analysts pointed out that we need to look at the definition of “basis”. In other words, it is necessary to judge whether the software and technology of the United States constitute the basic elements in foreign products. < / P > < p > in the view of many industry insiders, the solution to the new sanctions is to produce by ourselves. In the eyes of the outside world, this is a seemingly impossible task, but at this very moment, we always need to make preparations in advance and make a bold move. However, as the U.S. general election approaches, changes at the policy level still need to be seen. At the financial report meeting in March this year, Xu Zhijun, Huawei’s rotating chairman, once said that (the new export control measures) would bring endless troubles. “Once Pandora’s box is opened, it may be devastating chain damage to the global industrial ecology, and it may not be just Huawei. We hope to cooperate with global industry chain to provide reliable products for global customers. ” In a report released in March this year, BCG pointed out that the US restrictions on Sino US technology trade may end its leading position in the semiconductor field. If the United States completely forbids semiconductor companies to sell products to Chinese customers, their global market share will lose 18% and their revenue will lose 37%, which will actually lead to the United States Decoupling from Chinese technology. < p > < p > on August 7, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei’s consumer business, said at the 100 people’s Conference on China’s information technology that at present, domestic semiconductor technology has not caught up, and mate 40 Kirin 9000 chip is likely to become the last generation of Kirin high-end chips. As a result of sanctions from the United States, Huawei’s Kirin series chips, which are leading the world, cannot be manufactured after September 15, and will become out of print for high-end chips. < / P > < p > in addition to mobile phone chips, Huawei’s base station chips, AI chips (shengteng) and server chips (Kunpeng) will also be affected in high-end manufacturing processes. At the same time, the temporary general license (TGL) issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce for Huawei has expired, which is the last extension of TGL in the United States. Huawei can not continue to cooperate with either the communication equipment business in the United States or the GMS service provided by Google. In addition, 5g’s overseas market is also in the middle of uncertainty, including those who explicitly reject Huawei, some supporters and wavers. In August of that year, the US Defense Authorization Act of fiscal year 2019 was passed. Article 889 of the act requires that all U.S. government agencies are prohibited from purchasing equipment and services from Huawei. Then, on May 16, 2019, with a thunderclap, the United States directly included Huawei in the entity list, cutting off the cooperation between some American enterprises and Huawei. Huawei had to reorient its direction and take out a spare tire that had been studied for a long time. Hisilicon, its chip design company, entered the public view. This year, the United States is pointing to Hisilicon to cut off the supply of chips. < / P > < p > If Huawei and its subsidiaries were included in the entity list on May 16, 2019, it would be a trump card for the United States to upgrade export restrictions in the year. Semiconductors are the underlying foundation to support the development of communications and 5g. The United States has taken out the killer mace in the semiconductor industry chain. Gu Wenjun told reporters: “in the short term, the first thing is to rely on inventory. Huawei’s inventory should last more than a year, and then it is ready to be self reliant. In the long run, we should rely on our own self-reliance, the changes in the future political situation, and the development of the domestic industrial chain. ” < p > < p > Huawei has also responded in many ways, including counterclaim at the legal level, more transparent and open public opinion, inventory preparation in advance, spare tire response, expansion of new business lines, cash flow reserve, adherence to multi supplier strategy, etc. At present, we have not seen a sharp layoff in Huawei. Instead, we are continuing to recruit high-tech talents with high salaries. At the same time, Huawei continues to take root in the semiconductor industry and participate in the cultivation of domestic semiconductor industry chain. The fierce attack from the United States seems to be a big blow to China’s semiconductor industry, but it will bring broader growth space for the domestic software and semiconductor industry. It is really very difficult, but it is a long-term trend for China to replace and build independent semiconductor industry chain. < / P > < p > in the American drama “billions”, the tangle between the federal prosecutor and the billionaire has ups and downs. Although it is a script, it can reflect the bloodbath in the legal and political fields in reality. Behind the legal battlefield and the industrial battlefield, there are evidences of grass ash and snakewire, which also involve the influence of politics and power. Transnational cases will be more complicated. < / P > < p > although the overall incident seems to be developing in an inconceivable direction, in fact, the US crackdown on Huawei is not a sudden fluke in the past two years. In the past 20 years, Huawei has been investigated and prosecuted continuously. However, in these processes, Huawei has not become weaker, but has grown into a leader in the communications industry. For so many years, the United States has not cited Huawei’s “real hammer”, but “whitewashed” Huawei in another way. < p > < p > looking back at the global business world, how many industries rise and fall, how many enterprises fail overseas, and how many enterprises disappear quietly. With the ups and downs of the business world, the giants have been leading the way for several years. Huawei is also struggling to survive while growing in size. If it can really withstand this series of sanctions, Huawei can also hit the bottom and rebound.