The U.S. estimates that North Korea may have 60 nuclear bombs. Where will the denuclearization of the peninsula go?

According to (VOA) reported on August 18, the U.S. Department of Defense’s “North Korea tactics” report, North Korea is estimated to have 20 to 60 nuclear bombs, and North Korea has the ability to produce six new nuclear weapons each year. There are also reports that North Korea will have as many as 100 nuclear weapons by 2020. < / P > < p > how accurate is the U.S. Department of defense estimating the number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons? Zhao Tong, a researcher at Tsinghua Carnegie Center for global policy, told surging news that “the figures in the U.S. defense report are more likely to come from the assessment of the amount of nuclear weapons fission material produced by North Korea, and then converted into the number of nuclear weapons that may be manufactured. < / P > < p > “more information we can use is to judge the operation of this kind of fission production facility in North Korea. According to the operation situation, we can calculate the quantity of fission material produced, and then convert it into the number of nuclear weapons that may be manufactured.” Zhao Tong believes that “the number of 60 pieces can only reflect the potential ability to produce nuclear weapons, but can not indicate that North Korea has accumulated this So many nuclear warheads. ” According to an article published in the Korean daily, the U.S. Department of defense estimated the number of North Korea’s nuclear bombs this time, which is similar to that estimated by the South Korean government in 2018. Zhao Mingjun, former South Korean Unification Minister, said in a question to the government in the parliament on October 1, 2018: “according to the judgment of the intelligence department, North Korea has at least 20 nuclear weapons and at most 60 nuclear weapons.” In its 2020 Yearbook published in June this year, SIPRI, which studies international security issues, speculates that North Korea has 30 to 40 nuclear warheads based on January this year. The Institute said North Korea had 20 to 30 nuclear warheads last year, adding 10 more this year. The U.S. military pointed out in the report that North Korea pursues nuclear weapons because its leaders believe that through nuclear deterrence, other countries can be prevented from considering changing their regime. Former Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi was killed after he stepped down in 2011 after abandoning his nuclear weapons in 2003. North Korea is worried that the same is happening in its own country. Although the accuracy of North Korea’s missile system is poor, nuclear and chemical weapons do not need high accuracy to produce great lethality. < / P > < p > in 2017, North Korea successfully launched “mars-12” and “mars-15” missiles successively, and the DPRK has officially owned intercontinental missiles that can attack Alaska and the mainland of the United States. < / P > < p > how accurate is the U.S. Department of defense estimating the number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons? Zhao Tong, a researcher at Tsinghua Carnegie Center for global policy, told surging news that “the figures in the U.S. defense report are more likely to come from the assessment of the amount of nuclear weapons fission material produced by North Korea, and then converted into the number of nuclear weapons that may be manufactured. < / P > < p > “more information we can use is to judge the operation of this kind of fission production facility in North Korea. According to the operation situation, we can calculate the quantity of fission material produced, and then convert it into the number of nuclear weapons that may be manufactured.” Zhao Tong believes that “the number of 60 pieces can only reflect the potential ability to produce nuclear weapons, but can not indicate that North Korea has accumulated this So many nuclear warheads. ” < / P > < p > in addition to the increase in the number of nuclear bombs, the U.S. Defense Department report also mentioned that North Korea has made great progress in the miniaturization technology of nuclear weapons, which is an important step in realizing reliable nuclear deterrence. According to an expert report of the UN Security Council’s sanctions committee against North Korea, many countries believe that North Korea “may” have developed a small nuclear device that can be loaded into ballistic missile warheads, according to an expert report of the UN Security Council’s sanctions committee against North Korea. The report of the panel of independent experts overseeing United Nations sanctions said that some countries (which did not disclose which countries) believed that the six nuclear tests carried out by North Korea were likely to have helped it develop a small nuclear device. Pyongyang has not conducted any more nuclear tests since September 2017. Zhao Tong said: “the miniaturization of the nuclear warhead will enable North Korea to develop multi warhead missiles.” moreover, the smaller the warhead is, in theory, conducive to North Korea’s manufacturing of missiles with smaller volume and weight as well as launch vehicles. “. With regard to the miniaturization technology of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, Wen Hongzhi, deputy spokesman of South Korea’s Ministry of defense, said on August 4 that the Ministry of national defense has repeatedly reiterated that North Korea’s nuclear miniaturization technology has reached a certain level, but the Ministry of defense does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power. South Korea’s defense ministry pointed out in the 2018 defense white paper that North Korea’s nuclear weapons miniaturization technology has reached a very high level, Yonhap said on the 4th. It is reported that the “2020 defense white paper” released by the South Korean defense ministry at the end of the year will also contain similar contents. < / P > < p > the third “golden special meeting” failed to take place, North Korea bombed the North Korea liaison office, South Korea military exercise, the new crown epidemic situation, the US election A series of events have led to an impasse in the denuclearization talks on the peninsula, which may even regress to the tension before the first “Jintao meeting”. From August 18, the U.S. Air Force has arranged six bombers to carry out missions at the same time within 24 hours. Among them, several B-1B bombers and “Reagan” aircraft carrier strike team in the sea area near Japan carried out joint exercises. The bombers also conducted exercises across the Taiwan Strait into Japan’s sea and air space, a move believed to deter North Korea. < / P > < p > whether North Korea will conduct exercises or test missiles in response to the deterrent action of US bombers has aroused the attention of the outside world. At present, South Korea and the United States are holding joint exercises. As in the past, the US South Korean military exercise has attracted criticism from North Korea. On the 17th, the North Korean media pointed out that the military exercise might trigger a “war crisis”. On the issue of denuclearization of the peninsula, the United States hopes that North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapons, and North Korea advocates to achieve denuclearization through negotiations on its own economic, national security and diplomatic issues. Wang Sheng, a professor in the Department of international politics at the school of administration of Jilin University, told surging news: “North Korea hopes to solve a series of issues such as its economic development, national security and DPRK US relations through denuclearization negotiations. If the U.S. general election is not postponed, the “North Korean card” will be reactivated around the month to add points for Trump’s reelection. Therefore, the denuclearization negotiations are not completely closed, and North Korea still has some expectations. It mainly depends on what new trends and measures the United States will take. ”

now has a difficult problem. Whether the Korean nuclear issue is solved by negotiation or high pressure is not a consensus of the Trump administration. Trump can not has the final say. The emergence of the new epidemic situation also brings a new resistance to the denuclearization of the peninsula. Wang Sheng believed that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the economic situation of the United States and its allies, South Korea and Japan, were not very good. In this situation, it is a big problem to exchange economic compensation for North Korea’s nuclear abandonment. Kim, the first vice minister of the Central Committee of the Korean workers’ party, said in a statement with Zhengtian on July 10 that she had heard “strange signals” sent by Americans to North Korea about the “Kim special meeting” through the media. In this regard, she personally believes that the DPRK US leaders’ talks may not be held within this year, and it is necessary for the US side to hold talks The talks have no practical benefits, no benefits. Kim and Zheng said that the DPRK’s position is not that it will never achieve denuclearization, but that it cannot be achieved at this stage. She stressed that in order to realize the denuclearization of the peninsula, the DPRK should also take corresponding changes, that is, to implement irreversible major measures.