After the lifting of the anti epidemic blockade measures, economic activities in Europe have surged, but this relief has been replaced by a resurgence of gloom, indicating that the region still has a long way to go before it can fully recover. A variety of indicators and high-frequency data show that economic activity has significantly slowed down, or even began to flatten, or has been lower than the level before the crisis, making the hope of a V-shaped economic recovery dashed. < / P > < p > a major problem is that some countries may have to restart the blockade measures that have been hit hard by the early shilling economy. The number of new cases in Europe is also on the rise as people travel to meet relatives and friends at the peak of the holiday season. < / P > < p > “output has surged since the lifting of the anti epidemic blockade, but the European economic recovery now seems to be stagnating at a time when it is 5% to 10% below normal. Social alienation, consumer prudence and external demand have all lowered the economic cap. Unfortunately, even if economic activity is so low, it may not be able to stay away from the new coronavirus. ” < / P > < p > even if people travel more, they don’t shop or eat out as much as they did before the crisis. With the re implementation of restrictive measures such as isolation, the impact on tourism is expected to intensify. < / P > < p > for many, the worst of the economic collapse is yet to come. At present, the job market is largely protected by the government’s large-scale job retention programs and loans. With the gradual withdrawal of this support, the unemployment rate is expected to rise sharply, causing another impact on demand. The < / P > < p > warning signal is on. The euro zone lost 4.9 million jobs in the first half of the year, almost half of the jobs created since the last recession. The expectation that layoffs will increase will not only hurt confidence, but also make consumers more willing to save money. Even in Germany, where new crown deaths are low and economic recession is low, economists don’t expect output to return to pre crisis levels next year. < / P > < p > this means that Europe’s economic outlook is more like a bird’s wing than a V-shaped recovery. The French central bank used the name in its forecasts. < / P > < p > this shape of recovery applies to all sectors, although some sectors perform less than others. According to the survey by the Central Bank of France, the market demand for hotels and restaurants in France is far below the normal level, while the automobile manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries, which have been recovering rapidly before, tend to be flat after reaching the peak, and may even decline in August. The long-term expectation is still lower than the pre epidemic level. The OECD’s “European composite leading indicator” is usually six months ahead of the economic turning point. The index rebounded sharply in June, but slowed down in July, with some gains reversed.