With the selection of the value list of Jinqilin listed companies in Hong Kong stock market opened, thousands of companies will compete fiercely for the eight Project Awards. Who is the most leading entrepreneur, such as Zhang Yong, Yu Liang, Wang Xing, Lei Jun, Xu Jiayin and Ding Lei.
on August 14, the Hang Seng Index company announced the latest index review results. Ali Xiaomi was included in the Hang Seng Index. However, meituan, which had the highest voice before, failed to be included in the HSI this time, which became the biggest cold shoulder in the quarterly review of the Hang Seng Index. So why didn’t meituan be included in the HSI? If meituan fails to dye blue, how much influence does it have on meituan? What other major events will affect the future trend of meituan?
on August 14, Hang Seng announced the quarterly review results. Alibaba, Xiaomi group and Yaoming bio were included in the Hang Seng Index. Xinhe real estate, China Wangwang and China Shenhua were excluded. The number of Hang Seng’s 50 constituent stocks remained unchanged.
However, Hang Seng said that hang seng index would report the results of the review to the index Advisory Committee within six months and put forward proposals for optimizing the Hang Seng Index. During this period, the number of constituent stocks in the Hang Seng index may increase.
meituan review was not included in the Hang Seng Index, but was included in the state-owned enterprise index. Alibaba, Xiaomi group and meituan review were included in the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index, while sinopharma holdings, BYD shares and CITIC Securities were excluded.
a cadre of star stocks have joined the Hang Seng Composite Index and are expected to be included in the Hong Kong stock connect on September 7. Huatai Securities said that based on the rules of Shanghai Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Hang Seng Index company, there are three main ways to be included in the Hong Kong stock connect. 1) the semi annual review of Hang Seng Composite Index shows that large and medium-sized stocks of Hang Seng Composite Index and small stocks with a market value of more than HK $5 billion will automatically enter the Hong Kong stock exchange, which is the most mainstream way to be included; 2) the “fast track” rule of Hang Seng Composite Index, for newly listed Hong Kong stocks, if If the market value reaches the top 10% of the current component stock market value of the Hang Seng Composite Index, it will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hong Kong stock connect after 10 trading days of listing. This approach is mainly applicable to large IPOs. 3) a + H dual listing state will be formed, which will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after the H-share price stability period ends and a shares are listed for 10 trading days.
that is to say, the following companies with a market value of more than HK $5 billion are likely to be included. Among them, the star stocks with large market value include Yingjun, Xinda biological, Baiji Shenzhou, kangfang biology, norfaith Jianhua, Peijia medical, Kangji medical, as well as the hot stocks of 999, mobile card, time neighborhood, kangfang biology, etc.
Guangfa strategy Liao Ling said that after the implementation of the new rules, the structural restrictions will no longer prevent the above three companies from entering the Hang Seng Index. However, if it is finally included in the Hang Seng Index, it is also necessary to consider such factors as the listing time (Hong Kong main board has been listed for more than 2 years, but if the market value is among the top 25 listed companies in Hong Kong stock market, the time limit for listing can be shortened), the market value (being in the top 90% of the total market value of all stocks within the scope of Hang Seng index stock selection), trading volume and other factors, as well as obtaining the final confirmation of the index Advisory Committee.
according to the Hang Seng Index Compilation Rules of the Hang Seng Index company, the general shares need to be listed for two years before they are eligible for inclusion. However, if the market value of the listed companies is large enough, there is a fast track to get into blue chips. According to the average market value since listing, if the company’s market value is the top 5 in Hong Kong stock market, it can be dyed blue after 3 months of listing; if it ranks 6-15, it can be included in the Hang Seng Index 6 months after listing; if it is 16-20, it is 12 months; if it is 21-25, it is 18 months.
first of all, does the HSI meet the inclusion criteria? First of all, different rights of the same share and secondary listing can be included in the Hang Seng Index. Meituan has no restrictions on the equity structure. Secondly, in terms of tradable shares, the total share capital of meituan is 5.879 billion shares, and the class A shares of meituan are about 735.6 million. Therefore, the outstanding shares of meituan are 5.143 billion shares, with a market value of HK $1.13 trillion, ranking among the top 10 Hong Kong stocks, with an average daily trading volume of several billion, ranking the forefront of Hong Kong stocks. At present, meituan has been listed for two years.
that is to say, meituan meets the conditions for inclusion of the Hang Seng Index in terms of listing time, trading volume and circulating stock market value. So why is meituan not included?
1) because the weight of TMT is too large, the index is not as good as Ali? Pang Ming, chief strategic analyst of Huaxing securities, said that it was a good thing for Alibaba to be included in the Hang Seng Index, which could force the secondary listed companies to be gradually included in the Hong Kong stock connect. In contrast, meituan has no such indicator significance and driving effect. Because if Ali meituan and Tencent all go in, TMT will have a great weight. If you choose two of the three, meituan will not be representative.
he continued, this is an accident. However, if meituan goes in, the weight of TMT will be too large, which is equal to Tencent AIA and HSBC. Besides, the equity weight of other components will also drop more, which is not conducive to business and has a great impact on capital flow.
2) performance indicators are also factors to be considered. Meituan lacks sustainable profitability? As for meituan’s failure to be included in the Hang Seng Index, many people felt unexpected. Some analysts pointed out that meituan’s performance in the first quarter was once again at a loss, and there was uncertainty in the second quarter’s performance and whether it could continue to make profits in the future, which may be part of the factors considered by the HSI.
Ye Shangzhi, chief strategic analyst of Shanghai No.1, said that meituan was included in the state index, but it was not included in the Hang Seng Index. It may be that the requirements of the Hang Seng index are relatively higher. The quarterly performance of meituan is still fluctuating at present, which may be the consideration of Hang Seng Index company.
3) the valuation of meituan is more than 500 times, which poses adjustment pressure on the Hang Seng Index in the future? At present, the valuation of meituan is as high as 564 times, and the price earnings ratio in 2020 is even higher than 1260 times. Some industry insiders have pointed out that meituan is not included in the Hang Seng Index now, which is the wisdom of the company. The company is worried that the decline of meituan’s valuation will drag down the Hang Seng Index. Similarly, SMIC has not been included in the index. It’s not that they’re bad, it’s too expensive.
at present, the performance of the Hang Seng technology index of the Hong Kong Banna index is relatively poor, but the Hang Seng technology index of the Hong Kong Banna index outperforms the NASDAQ index of the United States, and Hong Kong stocks of medicine and consumption all outperform the Hang Seng Index. Not only that, the world’s major stock markets have also outperformed the Hang Seng Index.
1) the core reason is that meituan’s performance continues to improve. Last year, it achieved a quarterly profit. Although it lost money in the first quarter of this year, the same performance exceeded expectations. Under the influence of the epidemic, the performance of the second quarter is expected to continue to exceed expectations.
2) capital driven, global zero interest rate promoted the global release of water, which stimulated the global capital inflow into global core assets: US stocks, especially technology stocks in US stocks, Maotai and chips and pharmaceuticals in a shares, Tencent, Ali, meituan and pharmaceutical, property management stocks of Hong Kong stocks, and core assets of other countries.
3) meituan’s monopoly power in the field of takeout, with a market share of nearly 60%, enjoying the leading premium. The 14.1 billion cash on the company’s account is conducive to the company’s continued expansion of new business and business map.
4) increase the weight of the included index. In June, meituan’s weight in MSCI increased significantly from 0.7% to 1.63%, attracting more than 10 billion passive capital inflow. If included in the Hang Seng Index this time, the agency predicts that it will bring $7.6 billion to meituan.
first of all, the market’s pursuit of meituan is simply reflected in four aspects: first, the expectation of the company’s performance and profitability; second, the company’s strong leading moat and premium ability; third, the global capital release and the pursuit of high-quality assets; fourth, the vision of incorporating the Hengzhi index and Hong Kong stock connect.
as a result, meituan has not been able to dye blue, and the stock price hyped by the market for meituan to be included in the Hang Seng index is bound to face short selling pressure. Some meituan investors said that it fell below 200, while others said that if meituan’s performance was not as expected, it would fall below HK $150. (meituan will disclose its performance on the 21st). More investors said, “speculation for more than half a year, not included in the Hang Seng Index.”
statistics show that 2.45 million shares of domestic capital were purchased on Friday, with a market value of 540 million. If the time is prolonged, domestic investors have bought more than HK $10 billion in meituan in the past month, ranking first among all Hong Kong stocks.
of course, Tencent, AIA and HSBC are also under short selling pressure on Monday. According to the results of the review of the Hang Seng Index, Tencent’s share has been reduced from 11.48% to 10% since September 7, with Alibaba holding 5%, Xiaomi group holding 2.59% and Yaoming biology holding 1.75%. AIA shares decreased from 10.42% to 9.96%, while HSBC’s shares decreased from 8.86% to 8.14%. (text / Jinshi)