2020 “Yinhua Fund Cup” Sina bank financial planner competition, hot registration. From now on to September 7, you will receive free gift packages worth more than 700 yuan from Guan Qingyou, Luo Yuanshang, Chen Kaifeng and Jian Qi. < p > < p > by the end of August 18, the market value of Haitian flavor industry (603288. SH) had reached 513.1 billion yuan, ranking 11th in the market value of all a shares, surpassing Sinopec (600028. SH) and closely following PetroChina (601857. SH), ranking 10th. < / P > < p > Haitian flavor industry has been criticized for its high value problem. After the outbreak of the epidemic, Haitian flavor industry began a new round of rise, with an increase of 78% since February. As a company with a volume of 100 billion yuan, this kind of increase is very “terrible”. However, at the same time, the performance of Haitian flavor industry did not reach a new high. Since 2018, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of Haitian flavor industry began to decline. Is the valuation of Haitian flavor industry with a market value of over 500 billion yuan reasonable? < p > < p > although the epidemic had little impact on seasoning consumption, the catering channel sales of Haitian flavor industry also had a pause for nearly two months. In the first quarter of this year, Haitian flavor industry achieved a revenue of 5.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.17%. The net profit was 1.614 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% over the same period of last year, which can be called the worst performance in recent five years. Even so, both institutional and individual investors still have a preference for Haitian flavor industry. < / P > < p > for a long time, Haitian always adopts the mode of “payment before goods” and “production according to sales”. Haitian will issue a monthly sales plan to the dealers and pay in advance in the form of weekly orders. During the Chinese new year, dealers will also increase the stock preparation. At the end of 2017 and 2018, the accounts received in advance accounted for 18% and 19% of the total sales of that year, about 10% higher than usual. Therefore, the sales task of Haitian in the first quarter of 2020 can be completed. However, the sales of the epidemic will be affected in the second quarter. Due to the dealer’s pressure on the goods, the inventory has not been digested due to the epidemic situation, which is bound to affect the order in the second quarter. The epidemic situation in China was basically under control at the end of March, and the catering industry continued to resume business. The time when the epidemic affected the income of Haitian catering channel was about 2 months. With reference to the turnover of Haitian in the second quarter of 2019 of 4.67 billion yuan, assuming that the demand for catering channels decreases by 60%, the company’s operating revenue in the second quarter of 2020 is expected to decline by about 16%, with an impact of about 4% on the whole year. < / P > < p > at present, Haitian flavor industry has not disclosed the interim report. Once the performance growth does not meet the expectations, it is not ruled out that institutional investors may reduce their holdings in the short term. At that time, the overestimation of “organization group” of Haitian flavor industry will be seriously challenged. Another reason for the popularity of Haitian flavor industry is the long-term certainty of its performance. However, with the increasingly intensive sales channels of Haitian flavor industry, the soy sauce industry, which has experienced rapid growth for many years, has shown its weakness. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of soy sauce in China showed a large-scale rapid growth from 2004 to 2015, and the total output of soy sauce industry began to decline after 2015. In the case of soy sauce consumption peaking, the growth of Haitian flavor industry in recent years only comes from the expansion of channels. < / P > < p > according to the prospectus of Haitian flavor industry, there were about 2100 first-class distributors in 2014. By the end of 2019, the number of first-class dealers has increased to more than 5000. It will increase by 129% in five years. In contrast, the operating revenue of Haitian flavor industry has only increased by 73% in the past five years. It can be seen that the performance growth of Haitian flavor industry in recent years mainly depends on expanding the number of dealers. And the average income of a single dealer has actually declined. Moreover, due to the differences in eating habits and taste preferences, the condiment industry in China presents a regional concentration pattern, which makes it difficult for manufacturers to open up the national market. At present, the network of Haitian flavor industry has covered 100% of the cities at prefecture level and above in China. Among the inland provinces in China, 90% of the provinces have sold more than 100 million yuan. In the future, it is more and more difficult for Haitian flavor industry to continue to improve the industry concentration. < p > < p > in terms of rolling P / E ratio, the current valuation of Haitian flavor industry is 93 times. According to the peg method commonly used by consumer stocks (the ratio of price earnings ratio to net profit growth rate, judge whether it is overvalued or not with the boundary of 1), the valuation of Haitian flavor industry has been significantly overvalued.