Last week, U.S. stocks continued to rebound. After the NASDAQ index took the lead in breaking through a record high, the S & P 500 index was close to its high set on February 21. < / P > < p > the market is still hesitating. The employment data and vaccine expectations have boosted investor sentiment, but the tortuous path of fiscal negotiations is testing the weak recovery prospects. After experiencing the strongest rebound in history, the future trend of US stocks may become the wind vane of the election. Today’s U.S. economic recovery depends on three factors: the progress of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve and Congress. The data shows that the number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased in the past two weeks, but there are still debates about whether the autumn school season can be started smoothly. Considering the still severe prevention and control situation, the risk of virus transmission on campus restart may further weaken the external confidence in the economy. < / P > < p > as the engine of the US economy, consumer spending is returning to normal. U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% in July, rising for three consecutive months. Excluding seasonal factors, total retail sales were 1.7% higher than February, a record high, the Commerce Department said. An important factor behind consumer spending is the growth of total household income in the United States, which is closely related to the federal government’s stimulus plan and unemployment benefits. At the same time, the recovery of the labor market is slow, and the number of people who applied for government relief in the past week is still as high as 28 million. With the expiration of the $600 emergency unemployment relief under the care act at the end of July, nearly one fifth of the U.S. labor force is facing an income gap of nearly $17 billion. However, the U.S. Congress is deadlocked in a new round of stimulus negotiations, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it was “far from the White House’s position.”. Bob Schwartz, an economist at Oxford Institute of economics, said in an interview with first finance reporter that with the US Congress entering the recess stage, the prospect of passing the stimulus bill in the short term has become dim, and the expansion of US economic activity may slow down in August. The longer this continues, the greater the impact on the future economy and consumer spending. Richard Curtin, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said the impasse in congressional policy was the reason for the weak outlook, and overall consumer confidence in the economy fell to the lowest level since President trump took office. Colding said Americans generally expect the sluggish economy not only to continue in the coming year, but most consumers don’t expect to return to the state of previous expansion in the next five years. Although overall consumer spending will continue to pick up in the second half of the year, it is difficult to predict the end of the recession. According to global data, only 36% of people spend more or less on retail shopping in the first week of August than in the same period last year, which is lower than 57% in the last week of June. While Earth Research said consumers cut back on store credit card spending at the end of July and early August, and the restaurant consumption momentum of OpenTable was slowing down significantly. According to Schwartz, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the growth of retail sales in July slowed down significantly compared with the previous two months. From the perspective of sub indicators, the growth of general merchandise sales did not boost the overall recovery of the service industry. Consumers may return to prudence in the future, which is a negative factor for overall spending demand. Schwartz analyzed that at this stage, the overall demand recovery of Americans has stabilized. If additional government financial support cannot be implemented in the short term, the consumption vitality brought about by economic restart will decline again, which will impact the future economic growth. < / P > < p > despite the hazy economic outlook, investors’ bets on recovery continue to drive capital flows back. Guotai Junan International said in its Bi weekly report on global capital flows to first finance and economics that capital inflows were recorded in the global stock and bond markets last week. Us, Japanese and Hong Kong stocks recorded the largest inflow of funds, with a net inflow of US $11.32 billion from the bond market, and US bond market attracted us $6.98 billion. Boris Schlossberg, macro strategist at BK asset management, an asset management firm, said in an interview with first finance that the market still firmly believes that the US Congress will eventually reach some kind of compromise. However, as time goes on, bulls have less ammunition, and if the two parties eventually fail to reach a consensus, the stock market seems at least ready for some kind of correction. In the last week’s market, the news of policy negotiations led to the short-term sharp rise and fall of the market. < p > < p > with only about 100 days to go before the US election, a historical economic data does not seem to be conducive to trump’s re-election prospects. Dao Ming Securities said it was difficult for the current president to get a second term during the recession. On August 7, trump signed a series of administrative orders, hoping to break the market deadlock as soon as possible. Schlossberg told the first finance reporter that Trump’s proposal could not solve the impact of the epidemic on the economy. His idea was to exert pressure on Congress to seek the possibility of reaching an agreement as soon as possible, which may be of great significance for the upcoming presidential election. “< p > < p >” trump hopes that the economy can recover as soon as possible. The deadlock in Congress makes the hope of a strong rebound of the U.S. economy at the end of the year is getting smaller and smaller. In the absence of a new round of financial support from the government, the pressure of enterprise layoffs will again hit the job market and prolong the period of economic recession. ” He said. < p > < p > for trump, maintaining the upward trend of the US stock market is also one of the important means to add Dalian. First finance reporter noted that trump frequently linked the stock market performance with the election recently. He repeatedly voiced his voice through social media, warning that if Biden wins the presidential election in November, the US stock market will plummet and the economy will fall into depression. In a report last month, Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL financial, said in a report last month that since 1984, the stock market has been accurately predicting who will win the US presidential election. When the S & P 500 index rises three months before the election, the ruling party will win. Today, the S & P 500 is on its strongest rebound in nearly 90 years, rising 50.7% in 100 trading days (as of August 13) after hitting the year’s low on March 23, the best performance since 1933. What’s interesting is that, considering the time point of economic recovery, the current trend of the S & P index is the same as that in 2009. In the report, Randy Frederick, vice president of derivatives trading at credit card, said that although history does not always repeat itself, the correlation between the two trends is always at a high level, and there is no line day for the differences. The S & P index bottomed out and rebounded by 49.7% on August 13 of the same year. If this trend continues, the S & P may reach 3700 points by the end of the year. With the election day approaching, whether US stocks can continue the strong performance since March may have a subtle impact on the election of the two parties.