Puzzle of Gmv decline in pinduoduo

On August 21, pinduoduo released its financial report for the second quarter of 2020. In this quarter, pinduoduo’s revenue growth was good, the loss was also significantly narrowed, the number of users was further narrowed, and the revenue was roughly in line with market expectations. However, pinduoduo’s stock fell by more than 13%. Media reports have evaporated a < / P > < p > financial report. Several key data seem to be commendable, but the stock price has fallen sharply. The reason may be that many people can’t understand this season’s hard work. In order to build up the image of high-end goods, especially those with higher unit price, we did not need to pay more subsidies to attract customers. The narrowing of losses is a key point of pinduoduo’s financial report this quarter. Q2’s net loss attributable to common shareholders was 893.3 million yuan (about 127.3 million U.S. dollars), compared with 1.003.3 billion yuan of common shareholders in the same period of last year. The net loss attributable to common shareholders was 77.2 million yuan (about US $10.9 million), compared with 411.3 million yuan in the same period of last year. < / P > < p > as of June 30, 2020, the annual number of active buyers of the platform reached 683.2 million, compared with 483.2 million in the same period of last year. The number of active buyers increased by 55.1 million in a single quarter, the largest single quarter growth since listing, with an increase of 41%, which was basically the same as that in previous quarters. < p > < p > Alibaba, which released its financial report the day before yesterday, showed that some of the annual active consumers in China’s retail market were 742 million, with a net increase of 16 million in a single quarter. As a result, the difference between the two companies narrowed further to 58.8 million from 98 million in the previous quarter. With the growth of the user scale, the user activity of the platform also increases simultaneously. In the second quarter, the average monthly active users of pinduoduo app reached 568.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and a single quarter growth of 81.4 million. In terms of revenue, Q2 pinduoduo achieved a revenue of 12.193 billion yuan, an increase of 67% compared with 7.290 billion yuan in the same period last year. The growth in revenue was mainly due to the growth in revenue from online marketing services. < p > < p > the growth is mainly due to the increase in commercial advertising demand brought about by the recovery of the epidemic. Ma Jing, vice president of finance of pinduoduo, said, “in this quarter, we have noticed a healthy recovery in commercial advertising demand. In addition to businesses postponing marketing spending to June, we attribute this growth to higher user engagement and higher returns from more attractive advertising products. ” < / P > < p > although the revenue growth rate was better than 44% in the previous quarter, it was still not so good compared with the previous period. As can be seen from the figure below, since the financial data of pinduoduo was released, the revenue growth rate of pinduoduo has not been less than 100%. In terms of Gmv, during the 12-month period up to June 30, 2020, the platform Gmv reached 1268.7 billion yuan, an increase of 79% compared with 709.1 billion yuan in the same period of last year. This is not the usual performance of pinduoduo, which was 108% in the last quarter. < / P > < p > then there is a problem. The number of users has increased significantly, but Gmv’s growth is weak. There is only one reason, that is, the contribution value of individual users has decreased, which is also true from the financial report. As of the end of June, the average annual consumption of active buyers on the platform was 1857 yuan, an increase of 27% compared with 1467.5 yuan in the same period of last year. However, there was little change compared with the previous quarter. In the last quarter, the number was 1842.4 yuan, that is to say, it only increased by more than 10 yuan. In the past, the average annual consumption of active buyers on the platform was 1857 yuan, an increase of 27% compared with 1467.5 yuan in the same period last year. However, the marketing expenses in this quarter are still not low. According to the financial report, the sales and marketing expenditure in the name of “10 billion subsidies” was RMB 9.113 billion (about US $1289.9 billion), up 49% from RMB 6103.7 million in the same period of last year. < / P > < p > this means that the input-output ratio of pinduoduo is still expanding in the first quarter. (we have mentioned in the previous 2019 annual report and 2020q1 quarterly report), the per capita contribution value increased by 27%, while the marketing expenses increased by 49%, compared with the previous quarter, the per capita contribution value increased by 47%, and the marketing expenses increased by 55%. < / P > < p > you can see that the input-output ratio of pinduoduo is getting lower and lower. This points to the point that pinduoduo’s strategy of increasing the unit price of customers by subsidizing high-priced goods with a large amount of money seems to have gone bad. According to the financial report of this quarter, pinduoduo seems to have been adjusting its strategy. From the above data, we can see that the increase in the investment in marketing expenses is actually lower than that in the last quarter. Therefore, in this quarter, pinduoduo’s revenue rarely covers the marketing expenses. We should know that pinduoduo’s revenue basically offsets the marketing expenses all the year round, which is also pinduoyi There is no reason for the loss. In a telephone conference after the release of the financial report, Jiuding, vice president of pinduoduo strategy, said: “after the epidemic, we did see some changes in consumer spending. In the first quarter, because of the economic recovery, we did see a rise in consumer spending behavior, but we also noticed that the amount of consumer spending was indeed reduced, and they paid less for products Pay more attention to the value of pinduoduo platform to buy some necessities, such as consumer goods. ” In the conference call, Jiuding mentioned that pinduoduo will increase its investment in agriculture in the next few years, including supply chain. “Although the penetration rate of e-commerce in the agricultural sector is not high, we see great opportunities, not only in advertising, but also in the technical solutions we provide to the participants in the ecological environment.” < / P > < p > this seems to imply the next adjustment of 10 billion subsidies, from apple and Dyson to consumer goods and agricultural products. So people can’t understand such a pinduoduo. Is the subsidy for growth strategy not fragrant? Is the dream of subsidizing apple and dysons breaking into the high-end market? Does pinduoduo want to return to its advantageous items of consumer goods and agricultural products? Is it possible to return to the situation of low customer price and “Five Ring Road” users?