Nobel Laureate: the U.S. economy will not rebound in a V-shape, and major powers are decoupling or are already taking place

“We live in an interdependent world, and in a sense, this decoupling is going to happen, or is already happening.” On August 22, Joseph Stiglitz (Joseph Stiglitz), a professor of Columbia University and winner of the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001, said at the 2020 Qingdao China wealth forum with the theme of “the trend of wealth management under the global upheaval”. With regard to the epidemic situation in the United States, Joseph Stiglitz said that New York has done a very good job in prevention and control, but many parts of the United States have done poorly, which is one of the biggest failures of the trump authorities. People are not equal in the face of the epidemic. Those who are already sick and those who do not have health insurance are at higher risk and have poorer nutritional status. the reason why the epidemic situation in the United States has become the current situation is that the social cohesion of the United States is not strong. Many Americans, knowing that they will spread the virus without wearing masks, are unwilling to wear them. Another problem is that no one in the trump Administration respects science, and every year this government has to cut its funding for science by 30%; moreover, Americans do not trust the government Policies at the public level are needed, but Americans don’t trust the government, and the U.S. stockpiles run out quickly; and finally, there are many problems in the private sector. The resilience of the private sector is not strong. In the United States, for example, it is very difficult to produce products such as masks, protectors and ventilators if they need to be urgently needed. According to Joseph Stiglitz, in terms of epidemic prevention and control, different countries perform differently, and at the economic and social levels, the impact of the epidemic is also different. The U.S. economy will not have a V-shaped recovery. In August, the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded one million last week. The longer the epidemic lasts, the more serious the economic damage will be. Countries like the United States, which have done very poorly, will certainly face greater challenges in terms of economic recovery. The U.S. government’s policy may reverse the situation to mitigate the impact of the epidemic, depending on this year’s election. The election is not only very important to the world, but also has the most fundamental impact on the U.S. economy. Firstly, the global supply chain lacks resilience. This has also had a great impact on the onshore economy, which has led to the rise of protectionism. It needs to be recognized that some of these economic policies will only bring higher costs to Global trade. At present, a very serious geopolitical burden has emerged, and some countries have noticed this and taken preventive measures. The second effect is that the epidemic clearly shows that we need more international cooperation. We all live on the same planet. The virus doesn’t care about borders, your passport or visa. International institutions may not be perfect, but their mechanisms are the only way for the international community to solve international problems. Therefore, it is a great mistake for the United States to withdraw from who. Third, due to a series of debt crises, many countries will be unable to repay their debts. These developing countries are unable to repay their national debt, and now Ecuador and Argentina are rebuilding their debt systems.

novel coronavirus pneumonia is only a factor affecting globalization. More importantly, the United States may reassess its relations with China. Hongkong and network security issues have gone beyond traditional international relations and economic relations. first, the debt problem. In the past few months, debt has risen rapidly, central banks have had problems with their balance sheets, and European central banks have begun to shrink their balance sheets. America’s fiscal deficit has soared to 15% – 20% of GDP, which is unprecedented. At the same time, the US debt to GDP ratio has exceeded 100% in the summer, and the United States should be careful about future debt and inflation. Inflation will not be, and will not be, a major problem. secondly, why does inflation not have a serious problem? It’s the central bank that sends the money, and people don’t actually have to spend it. One of the reasons why the economy is not active now is that we are more cautious and unwilling to spend. Third, we are facing a lot of uncertainties, including balance sheet issues. We should be cautious. Another mistake we may get into is ultra-low interest rates. In some industries in the United States, in fact, we have seen the phenomenon of wage decline. We have already mentioned the reasons for this, especially the fiscal problems around the world, and the European economy will continue to be weak. The United States is now in a split state. Although we have a lot of stimulus measures, the economy is still not performing well. related to the epidemic, there may eventually be some inflationary pressure, but it will take years to see this inflation concern become a reality. When inflationary pressures arise, there will be various monetary and fiscal instruments to address these pressures. These are moments of high uncertainty but plenty of opportunities. Wang Boming, editor in chief of Caijing magazine, said that China and the United States are now in a relatively tense state. There are many disputes over trade and other issues. The trump government has forced some private enterprises in China to close down or trade in the United States. In this regard, Joseph Stiglitz believes that this involves a new element in international economic relations, namely, the control of network security and digital technology. There will be some privacy, data security, data control and other issues. For the reasons given by the trump administration, Joseph Stiglitz said that “there are many aspects that cannot be understood”. Trump’s claim that the U.S. government will take a profit from the sale of tiktok to Microsoft raises questions about his motives. His motives are very strange, and they are not based on any intelligence at all. Wang Boming: next, we’re going to invite an American friend. Professor Stiglitz received a doctorate from MIT at the age of 24, and was hired as a professor by the famous Yale University at the age of 26. From 1993 to 1997, he served as a member of President Clinton’s Council of economic advisers, and then chairman of the Council in 1995. In 1997, after being promoted from the chairman of the Council of economic advisers, he became a senior vice president of the world bank and also the chief economist of the world bank. In 2001, he won the Nobel Prize in economics for his important contribution to information economics, a branch of economics. Since 2000, he has been a professor in the school of international relations at Columbia University in the United States. In the past two or three years, he held an economic seminar sponsored by Columbia University before the China Development Forum to discuss world economic issues and China’s economic problems. Some professionals also know that he has a lot to say about the trump administration now. Of course, you can ask him his opinion later. Joseph Stiglitz: it’s under control. We have done very well in this area, but in many parts of the United States we have done very poorly. This is one of the biggest failures of the trump administration, and we’ll talk about it later. Wang Boming: there are hundreds of people here today to ask for your opinions. In addition, we also broadcast them online, so millions of people come to watch your speech. So you have 20-30 minutes to speak, and we’ll ask you a few questions. Joseph Stiglitz: Yes, no problem. Let me talk about our rapidly changing world economy, which also involves wealth management. Joseph Stiglitz: the first problem is definitely the epidemic. There are many uncertainties in this regard, such as the ability to control the epidemic and its impact on the economy. But we are very clear that the epidemic has caused great damage to our economy, and the economic decline is unprecedented. The rapid rise in unemployment, including in the United States, has caused us unprecedented damage. The rise in treasury bond rates and the rise in the central bank’s balance sheet are also historic. some countries are much better at controlling the epidemic than the United States. Those countries that have done well will certainly recover better, and they will have a better future. For example, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea. Countries that don’t do well, like the United States and Brazil. Economists have been thinking for the past few months, why do some countries do well and others do not? So I’d like to spend a few minutes talking about why the United States is particularly bad in this regard. There are two reasons: the first is the current condition, and the second is the problem to deal with. There are already problems in the United States, including inequality in our health care system. Everyone is not equal in the face of the epidemic. Those who are already ill or have no medical insurance are at higher risk, and their nutritional status is worse. Unfortunately, the health level of the United States is worse than that of other developed countries. For example, life expectancy per capita is basically lower than that of all developed countries. we are also very poor in social welfare, for example, we have no new sick leave. If you get another half of the virus, you have to work in America. In addition, our medical system is not flexible and resilient, and our number of beds per thousand people is lower than that of some developed countries. The social cohesion of the United States is not strong. Many Americans don’t wear masks when it’s obvious that they can spread the virus without wearing masks. Singapore is a country with high social cohesion. We all wear masks soon, and we don’t need legislation. Unfortunately, in the United States, many people still refuse to wear masks. Wearing masks has become one of the problems, which is represented by the supreme leader of the United States. There is another problem, that is, anti intelligence. Because of the science, we can quickly find out what the cause of death is. In addition, because of science, we hope to develop a vaccine in a very short time. But no one in the trump government respected science. Every year the government cuts the funding of science and cuts 30%. But every time congress intervenes, trump is currently very disrespectful of science. One of the manifestations of this anti intelligence is the neglect of the CDC. Because the CDC is the most important role that the country plays in fighting the epidemic. There are also Americans who do not trust the government. We need policies at the public level, but Americans don’t believe in government. No, we’re running out of supplies. in addition, in the private sector, although there are problems with the new crown test in the private sector, the public sector test does not have the capacity, which leads to overlapping problems. The resilience of the private sector is not strong. In the United States, for example, masks, protective equipment, ventilators, etc