It was reported on August 18 that the 2020 Sina Finance and economics Hong Kong stock value summit and golden Qilin Hong Kong stock value list was officially held. Sina Finance and economics focused on the Hong Kong market and carried out the annual value list selection of Jinqilin Hong Kong stock listed companies to select high-quality enterprises and measure the core value of Hong Kong stocks. Wang Zhongmin, Li Xunlei, Lu Ting, Zhang Yidong, Hong Hao, Chen Li, Wang Hanfeng and other capital giants gathered in Sina Finance and economics to interpret the global economic trend and study and judge the investment trend of Hong Kong stocks. Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities in China, attended the forum and delivered a speech. He said that China’s economy experienced a very obvious V-shaped rebound in the first half of the year. The main factors include our institutional advantages, policy strength, and the obvious demand for retaliatory consumption and investment. On the whole, the GDP growth rate of major European and American economies began to decline in the first quarter, and by the second quarter it was basically between – 10% and – 20%. < / P > < p > in the second half of the year, both the world and China are still faced with various risks. The epidemic situation may be repeated, and the normal operation of the society is more difficult. After the extension of the epidemic situation, the social problems of the United States and the space for future loose policies become smaller. With regard to the economic policy in the second half of the year, Lu Ting said that with the economic growth in the second quarter significantly better than expected, we will have to fight a protracted war. We need to do cross cycle design in macro-control, and we can’t simply talk about counter cycle. In terms of specific policies, we need to implement the policies announced in the past for the whole year to achieve results. On the one hand, there is no need to worry too much about tightening our policies; on the other hand, without the recurrence of the second epidemic, the government will not obviously introduce more new policies, and more policies will be cross cyclical policies. On the one hand, the external circulation is still very important. On the other hand, import substitution is the import substitution of key products. Not all our imports have to be replaced. On the other hand, export is still very important, but we need to transform a certain amount of production capacity by stimulating domestic demand in the future. Moreover, in this respect, our import and export are not limited to the commodities we can see. We also have many service industries, including domestic education and tourism. In fact, we should assume the important responsibility of internal circulation. < / P > < p > in terms of specific policies, there are two key points. One is the emphasis on new infrastructure construction, especially the new infrastructure with 5g and new energy as the core. In terms of infrastructure construction, we should promote infrastructure construction through urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, instead of spreading all over the country. On the other hand, real estate is determined to insist that “the house is for living, not for speculation”. From the perspective of real estate, it is related to infrastructure construction. The future focus is to promote the development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas. It can no longer blossom in all directions as before. A large number of cities in the third and fourth tier cities are promoted by means of government subsidies and monetary shed reform The era of real estate development in the third and fourth tier cities has passed. The epidemic situation has a long-term impact on the global economic structure and trend. First, the rapid development and rapid leap of e-commerce. This epidemic is not only a short-term promotion of global e-commerce, but also a long-term structural change. What we thought could not be done through the Internet, now whether it is a meeting, whether it is a small or large conference, there are many teaching, can be done through the network. With the development of technology, it is indeed a long-term impact, no matter how much attention can be paid. < / P > < p > impact 2: quantitative easing of global central banks. In terms of QE of global central banks, there is a feature in the past decade. It is relatively easy to do QE, but it is difficult to withdraw from this QE. As we all know, in the past few months, the central banks of developed countries, especially the Federal Reserve, have launched large-scale QE. The balance sheet of the Central Bank of the United States has risen from about $4 trillion to about $7 trillion. What is the long-term impact? If we look at the impact of QE on European and American central banks after 2008, we can basically infer that a series of impacts will be caused by this wave of QE in the next three, five and ten years. < / P > < p > first of all, global interest rates will be relatively low, especially in developed countries, and credit will be easier to obtain. In this process, asset prices will rise faster. Of course, this is not a bad thing. However, a problem brought about by the rapid rise of asset prices is the global social inequality between the rich and the poor, and class differentiation, which can easily lead to various social problems. This aspect has many worthy of our later study, to explore. < / P > < p > Second, because the low interest rate will lead to lower efficiency of financial resource allocation, and a large number of zombie enterprises will emerge. From some angles, it will make some credit bonds in the world overpriced. On the other hand, because of the existence of a large number of zombie enterprises, at least in the short cycle, the global CPI inflation will be relatively low. < / P > < p > Third, it involves the potential growth rate, because QE will lead to low efficiency. On the other hand, because of QE, the proportion of resources allocated by governments around the world is increasing. Therefore, the global economic efficiency as a whole may decline and the cost of rent-seeking is on the rise. Therefore, from this perspective, the potential global economic growth rate may be affected in the next few years. It is after such a rebound that we can see that the negative effects of the epidemic will affect global economic growth. < / P > < p > from the perspective of large and medium-sized asset allocation: on the one hand, we should see that the prices of precious metals such as gold are indeed supported to a certain extent. Although they have fluctuated greatly in the past few days, in fact, I think if we look at it for a long time, gold should be regarded as a relatively good investment product in general. On the other hand, the shares of leading enterprises with good profit and dividend distribution are also worthy of our attention. There is also a good portfolio of credit bonds, in fact, in such a global QE background, there is also investment value. Another point is the real estate and real estate in the core area. Under the background of global money printing, the prices of real estate in the best places, especially in several core cities in the world, including several core cities in China, are still supported. The third is the impact of anti globalization. We can see that under this global epidemic situation, the global anti epidemic has exposed many problems. Many countries in the world are also reconsidering how to achieve a certain balance between the efficiency, flexibility and security of the global industrial chain. In the past 10 or 20 years, people have emphasized more on efficiency, but this epidemic has made people feel that security and flexibility are also very important. In addition to the Sino US issue and other geopolitical issues, we feel that we should pay attention to the risks of the global industrial chain. Therefore, in this kind of counter globalization, no matter how fast or slow, I believe it is an inevitable trend and an inevitable topic. Anti globalization itself brings about certain changes, but we should not overestimate the speed of this change. On the whole, the future has challenges and risks for us, but there are more opportunities. He said that he believed that there would be many opportunities for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the process. Of course, Hong Kong shares are generally cheaper. Moreover, in the current international situation, a large number of excellent enterprises have returned to Hong Kong for listing. Therefore, Hong Kong’s stock market is actually facing another brilliant period in the past two decades. Before 2008, a large number of Chinese enterprises came to Hong Kong for listing. Now, a large number of excellent enterprises have returned to Hong Kong from overseas. Therefore, the second brilliance is worthy of our attention and investment in the middle of this process, so as to create profits for ourselves and customers.