Japan suffers the biggest economic decline in 65 years, experts say recovery will take time

On the 17th, Japan’s economic decline in the second quarter of 2020 was the largest in 65 years, according to official data released by Japan. Prior to this, many foreign media reported that the Japanese economy had been declining for three consecutive quarters due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. At present, the epidemic situation in Japan is on the rise. Analysts predict that it will take at least three years for the Japanese economy to recover to the level before the epidemic. According to the initial value of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020 released by Japan’s cabinet office on the 17th, Japan’s real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by nearly 8% compared with the previous quarter, showing negative growth for three consecutive quarters. The Japan Times said the decline was the biggest since records began in 1955. According to the Japan times, the sharp decline in personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s economy, has become a major drag on Japan’s economy. In April this year, in order to curb the spread of the new crown epidemic, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency. The local government asked residents to stop unnecessary going out, schools to suspend classes, commercial and public facilities with large flow of people, and sports and entertainment activities. It was not until the end of May that all of Japan’s 47 first level administrative regions lifted the ban. < p > < p > affected by the state of emergency, Japan’s domestic demand fell sharply. People’s spending on tourism, dining out and shopping decreased significantly. Japan’s personal consumption fell 8.2% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, and the decline in consumer spending reached the largest ever recorded. < / P > < p > in addition, the epidemic has greatly increased the uncertainty of the prospects of Japanese enterprises. Data show that the investment in equipment of Japanese enterprises decreased by 1.5% month on month, while that of private residential buildings decreased by 0.2%. The decline in external demand also played an important role in the economic downturn, with exports of goods and services falling by 18.5% month on month. According to the guardian, the decline in global auto sales has affected Japanese car manufacturers and Japanese auto exports have been hit hard. In addition, the number of inbound tourists has also dropped sharply due to strict international travel restrictions. According to the Japan times, another important reason for Japan’s economic recession is that the Tokyo Olympic Games have been postponed. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the Tokyo Olympic Games will be postponed to July 23 to August 8, 2021, which has brought huge economic losses to Japan. In preparation for the Olympic Games, Japan invested more than 3 trillion yen (about RMB 19.6 billion yuan), excluding the irreducible investment in human and material resources, as well as the hidden losses in investment, consumption, retail, catering, hotels, tourism and other industries hoping to catch the Olympic express. Although the Olympic Games have been postponed to 2021, the current epidemic situation makes it impossible for the Olympic Games to be held as scheduled next year. Japan’s economy and finance minister, Taimin Nishimura, believes that the GDP data is “quite grim”, but also points out some bright spots, such as the recent rebound in domestic consumption. “We hope to do our best to push the Japanese economy back to the domestic demand driven recovery track,” he said at a news conference Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in early August that Japan’s economy could not afford the second national emergency and that he would do everything within his authority to avoid such a second national emergency. According to Reuters, Japan has implemented large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the economy. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Japan has launched two rounds of economic stimulus programs, including cash subsidies to the public and small and medium-sized enterprises and preferential loans for enterprises. Analysts predict that Japan’s rebound in the epidemic and weak economic recovery may prompt the government to introduce more stimulus measures. Although Japan’s economy is recovering from the downturn following the lifting of the blockade at the end of May, analysts believe that the resurgence of the epidemic may cause many consumers to tighten their belts again. In 2019, due to the continuous international trade friction, domestic consumption tax increases and other factors, Japan’s economy has been “crumbling”. < / P > < p > analysts expect Japan’s economy to start growing in the third quarter. “I expect Japan’s economy to turn to positive growth in the third quarter,” said nanwuzhi, chief economist at Japan’s agriculture, forestry and China Gold Research Institute. But globally, except for China, economic recovery is weak everywhere. ” < / P > < p > some Japanese analysts believe that the worst may be over, but it will take at least three years for the Japanese economy to return to its pre epidemic level. < / P > < p > the epidemic situation in Japan has rebounded sharply recently. Novel coronavirus pneumonia cases were reported in 644 cases, including 15 cases of death, 56857 cases of cumulative confirmed cases and 1119 deaths, according to the statistics of the Japan Broadcasting Association (CBA), as of 17 hours local time 23. As of 20:00 on the 16th, more than 1000 new confirmed cases were reported in Japan for 4 consecutive days.