When Washington politicians push the U.S. to “decouple” from China, there is a follower, the authorities, behind its butt. There are also measures to “decouple” from the mainland. < p > < p > on the 18th, the Taiwan authorities issued a notice saying that a “list of prohibited items of commercial conduct in Taiwan” would be issued soon, prohibiting any Taiwan unit from acting as an agent or distributing ott-tv (streaming media platform) services in the mainland. To put it bluntly, this announcement is aimed at iqiyi and Tencent. Because in the announcement, the Taiwan authorities directly pointed out that “in order to prevent the mainland ott-tv (such as iqiyi, Tencent, etc.) from” illegally “operating in Taiwan through agency or distribution. According to the report, iqiyi planned to invest in Taiwan to set up a subsidiary in 2016, but the application was rejected by the authorities. Afterwards, iqiyi bypassed Hong Kong and was represented by eurostib entertainment in Taiwan. Tencent’s video and audio platform we TV has also followed suit and launched in Taiwan through its Hong Kong subsidiary. Once this new regulation is issued, it is tantamount to declaring such agency activities illegal. However, according to the data of Taiwan survey institutions in April this year, the usage rate of iqiyi Taiwan in Taiwan exceeded 40%, ranking second only to Youtube and even higher than that of Netflix in Taiwan. There are more than just the authorities’ operations. Earlier, Taiwan’s “Minister of economy” released a signal that Taiwan would strictly review the management of mainland investment, saying that it was expected to revise the “mainland people’s investment Licensing Measures in Taiwan” in August, and the new regulations would be stricter and broader in scope. In fact, Taobao has long been targeted. Recently, the authorities rejected the application of Hong Kong based Taobao international exhibition industry alliance to invest 30 million yuan in Taiwan’s “Taobao” and “tmall” and other localized e-commerce platforms. In addition, Alibaba’s authorization to yingshangke radar to set up “Taobao Taiwan” has also been under attack. The authorities need to investigate whether the mainland investment has control over Taobao Taiwan. < / P > < p > looks like this. On the 19th, the latest news came out that another Taiwan enterprise was preparing to withdraw from the mainland. IPhone’s main metal framework suppliers and Taiwan enterprises have agreed to be sold in two Chinese mainland departments. < / P > < p > for the two deals, industry analysts said: “Kecheng technology may lose market share in Apple’s supply chain”; and “lens technology may improve its chances of winning iPhone and iPad assembly orders in the future.” However, as for the Taiwan company Weichuang’s sale of its mainland manufacturing plant to Lucent precision, analysts believe that this paves the way for the latter to become the first iPhone assembler in mainland China. However, the authorities are very proud. “Vice president” Lai Qingde also said, “this is the worst time, but also the best time”. The industry should choose the right strategic position to accelerate the return of Taiwan enterprises. < / P > < p > in fact, the “efforts” of the authorities to “decouple” go far beyond the economic aspect. As the epidemic situation slows down, the authorities have set many puzzling restrictions on mainland people coming to Taiwan. On the morning of the 19th, Chen Yuzhen, a legislator, and several Lu Pei held a press conference outside Taiwan’s “Legislative Yuan” on the return of Lu’s children, Xiao Ming, to Taiwan to protest against the authorities’ policies against Lu’s children. However, the new school year is about to begin in September, and Xiaoming, who is over 6 years old, is in the stage of schooling and most in need of returning to Taiwan to reunite with his family, is rejected by the authorities. However, as we all know, the current situation of epidemic prevention and control and the situation of returning to work and production in mainland China are well known. Obviously, they are just deliberately delaying. The so-called prevention and control is “political, not professional”. As before, Lu Sheng was discriminated against by the authorities. On August 5, Taiwan’s “Ministry of education” said that students from all countries and regions were allowed to apply for admission to Taiwan, but mainland students were not excluded. However, in the evening of the same day, when the person in charge of the Ministry of education was invited out by his staff, he changed his words when he came back. He said that because the authorities in charge of cross-strait affairs had different opinions, Lu Sheng would still open the door to fresh graduates first.
economically, although the authorities have this intention and some people call it very fierce, Taiwan’s decoupling from Chinese mainland is impossible.
was affected by the new crown epidemic. Most countries and regions in the first half of 2020 were not performing well. China’s mainland economy also experienced a very rare negative growth in the first quarter. Relatively speaking, Taiwan’s economy looks good on the surface. Statistics from relevant departments in the island show that GDP grew by 1.59% in the first quarter. < p > < p > due to the spread of the epidemic in the world, the negative impact has expanded rapidly. The industrial production index of Singapore and South Korea both showed negative growth in May this year. Taiwan’s industrial production continued to maintain the momentum of growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1.51% in May and a year-on-year increase of 6.51% from January to May. The island’s media, especially the media, take the opportunity to advocate that Taiwan’s economy is “performing well”. On the one hand, Taiwan’s economy has not been greatly affected by the control of the new epidemic situation in the island, with fewer confirmed cases and no severe blockade measures taken by the authorities to restrict economic activities. On the other hand, because the number of screening is too small, we want to create the image of “anti epidemic success”. < / P > < p > the strong demand for electronic products in the external market strongly drives the export of Taiwan related industries. The spread of Xinguan epidemic makes the demand of “home economy” such as home office, remote online teaching and online games increase rapidly, which directly drives the export of notebook and other communication products. In addition, the demand of “new economy” such as 5g infrastructure increases, which drives the export of semiconductor to a large extent. According to the statistics of Taiwan Province, from January to June 2020, the export of electronic parts (including semiconductors) increased by 20.2%, reaching a 10-year high, and the export of communication related products increased by 10.3%. Both exports accounted for 52.1% of Taiwan’s total exports, making Taiwan’s overall exports maintain a positive growth of 0.5% in the first half of the year. < / P > < p > but it’s just the beautiful side. Other industries in Taiwan, such as textiles, machinery, plastics and rubber products, performed poorly. Exports generally fell by about 10%. Aviation and tourism industries were even more miserable. As a result, all sectors are conservative in predicting the future trend of Taiwan’s economy. It is estimated that the economic growth rate in 2020 will be 1.67%, and there will be no significant “V” growth. Therefore, many analysts believe that Taiwan Province can only maintain a “mediocre growth” trend of about 2% in 2020, and may face the arduous challenge of a large increase in unemployment in the second half of the year. If we further analyze the export data of Taiwan Province in the past few months, we can find that the key factor for maintaining positive growth under the impact of the new epidemic situation is the close economic cooperation between the two sides. For example, in the six months of the first half of this year, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland increased by 9.8%, which was much higher than that in 2018 and 2019. Among them, the export of electronic components (including semiconductors) was the only one with a growth rate of 25.9%. Especially after the mainland took the lead in resuming production in March, the driving effect of Taiwan’s export to Taiwan was more obvious. In April, may and June, the growth rate of Taiwan’s export to mainland was 14.0%, 10.3% and 13.8%, respectively, which increased the dependence of Taiwan’s export to mainland to 46.1% in June, a record high. In addition, most Taiwanese businesses are still optimistic about the development prospects of the mainland. From January to May this year, they invested $2.67 billion in the mainland, up 40.30% year on year. This fully shows that the “cross-strait economic decoupling” policy line implemented by the authorities based on “ideology” can not reverse the general trend of cross-strait economic and social integration. However, after Tsai ing ing took office, the “new Southward Policy” implemented to promote “cross-strait economic decoupling” was on the verge of bankruptcy. Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN continued to decline, with growth rates of – 0.7% and – 7.2% in 2018 and 2019, and then decreased by 4.8% from January to June 2020, and the export share dropped to 15.7%, a new low in the past decade. As a result, if the authorities push for “cross-strait economic decoupling”, it will only be head to head. Of course, the people in Taiwan have suffered the most. As is known to all, close economic and personnel exchanges between the authorities and the “forces” are very beneficial to peace in the Taiwan Strait without breaking through the bottom line. < / P > < p > if Taiwan Province really “decouples” from the mainland economy, it must be that the authorities have artificially cut off the economic and trade ties and personnel exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait through mandatory policies and forces. Because, in the state of natural development, such a high degree of economic dependence on both sides of the Strait is impossible to break. Two days ago, a Taiwan policy research foundation held a forum on the topic of fierce confrontation between China and the United States and what opportunities and challenges Taiwan Province is facing, and invited experts and scholars to express their views. Lin Yufang, convener of the “defense and security group” of the foundation and former “legislator”, said there is an old African proverb: when two elephants fight, innocent grass suffers. He thinks that it is very appropriate to describe Taiwan’s current situation. Lin Yufang said that the fierce struggle between Washington and Beijing will give Taiwan the opportunity to buy more advanced weapons and enhance its combat effectiveness, but the probability of a war in the Taiwan Strait will also increase rather than decrease. Taiwan Island must be the main battlefield of war, and the PLA will also increase its military deployment to Taiwan. Therefore, Lin Yufang said that he hoped that the authorities could make good use of their political wisdom and “actively put forward creative proposals to the opposite side and restore normal communication channels between the two sides.”. Some Taiwan scholars believe that the overall strategy under the administration is “Taiwan should stand at the forefront of the world’s resistance to Beijing”. After the outbreak, a series of things, including those of Lu Sheng and Ming Sheng, were not really affected. The seventh fleet of the US Navy confirmed on the morning of 19 that a US Navy “Burke” class aegis destroyer USS mustin ddg-89 crossed the Taiwan Strait on the 18th. What’s more, the US warship is sailing along the west side of the so-called “middle line of the Strait”. < / P > < p > just behind the mastine, a class 052d destroyer of the PLA Navy is tracking and monitoring it. This is the first time that the US military has passed west of the central line of the Taiwan Strait and is closest to the mainland coast. In addition, on the 18th Taiwan network, it was also reported that an ep-3e electronic reconnaissance plane of the US Army entered the airspace of Northern Taiwan for shuttle flight, which was more likely to land at Songshan Airport. On the 19th, Taiwan military officials denied that a US electronic reconnaissance plane landed at Taipei’s Songshan Airport yesterday (18th). Recently, the Taiwan media disclosed that the Taiwan army has strictly warned the front-line pilots of the air force not to fire the “first shot” without authorization, and those who violate the military law will be punished. It can be seen that the Taiwan army also knows that trump has raised the support rate of his election by showing his military toughness in the Taiwan Strait. Once the gun goes wrong, Taiwan must pay the biggest price.