[although the box office market is increasing in a weak trend, the expected retaliatory consumption behavior has not really come. Many people put their hopes on the upcoming domestic blockbuster “eight hundred”. If “eight hundred” can save the market, it will be possible to promote “creed” and “Hua Mulan” to achieve good box office results in the Chinese cinema market. 】
people who attended the premiere of Disney’s live action movie Mulan at the Dolby theater in Los Angeles five months ago may be the last American audience to be lucky enough to watch Mulan on the big screen.
after months of fighting against the epidemic, it has been shocking. Disney’s “Mulan” and Warner’s “creed” choose the unconventional distribution mode, and their decision represents a different direction: believe in cinema or believe in streaming media.
these two blockbusters, both of which cost more than $200 million, are high-profile Hollywood blockbusters this year, and their revenue performance is crucial to the producers and producers. Based on the fact that the epidemic situation has not been curbed in the United States and the number of infected people continues to rise, after three times of withdrawal and rescheduling, and before the end of this summer, creed and Hua Mulan have to make a choice: the first weekend of September is the US Labor Day weekend, which was considered to be a weak schedule in the past.
the creed will first be released in 70 countries and regions such as Britain and France on August 26, then in some cities in the United States on September 3, and gradually expand the scope of screening in the following weeks, while the mainland of China will file on September 4.
Hua Mulan will be launched on September 4, Disney +, priced at $29.99. In countries and regions where Disney + service has not been opened, it is possible that it will be shown in theaters. The mainland of China has confirmed the introduction and has not yet announced the schedule.
although Disney CEO Bob chapek stressed that the unique distribution strategy of Mulan does not mean that they are building a new business window model. The price of online on-demand Mulan is very high, with a monthly rent of $6.99 and a monthly fee of $29.99, almost twice the price of a cinema movie.
However, the online profits of Hua Mulan will belong to Disney, and there is no need to split accounts with the cinema. So far, the number of paid users of Disney + has reached 60.5 million. Disney certainly hopes Mulan will attract new Disney + users, but no one knows how many will subscribe to the streaming service and just pay more for a movie.
a letter sent by Disney to British cinemas mentioned that in view of the impact of the epidemic and the destruction of all links of the industrial chain, Hua Mulan had to postpone for many times and adopt a specific release method for this market environment.
Phil Clapp, chief executive officer of the British Film Association, said the decision was disappointing and confusing when cinemas across the UK reopened. After months of restrictions on outdoor entertainment activities, going to the cinema to see a family movie would become a choice for many people. Both the audience and the cinema need a large number of new films.
Kevin markwick, who runs an independent cinema in Oakfield, UK, says Disney’s decision will make him homeless. He couldn’t understand why video on demand and cinema screening could not be carried out at the same time. For line managers, their concern is that Disney will no longer need cinemas, which will be a disaster for all cinema operators.
However, the collective resistance caused by the online magic of Mulan was different when it was launched on the streaming media platform. Disney’s move has been understood and even supported by some traditional theaters, such as AMC, one of the largest chain theaters in the United States. AMC reported a net loss of $560 million in the second quarter, according to the latest quarterly report. Adam Allen, AMC’s chief executive, said it was the most difficult moment in AMC’s 100 year history.
a week before Hua Mulan announced the launch of Disney +, AMC announced that it had reached an agreement with Universal Pictures: the window period was shortened to 17 days, and AMC would be able to share part of the revenue from online video on demand with Universal Pictures. This means that the cost of further shortening the window period is that traditional cinemas can get a share of streaming media revenue.
although the agreement has been questioned by the cinema industry, Allen said that they would not sign any agreement that is not conducive to the development of the cinema. This decision has been through modeling research, discussion and debate to ensure that it is correct and forward-looking. Allen hopes that Disney can also consider a similar agreement with Universal Pictures. “Like AMC, Disney is under great pressure, and at some times, they have to make profits through film products.”.
in the third quarter of fiscal year 2020, Disney’s revenue decreased by 42% year-on-year, with a net loss of $4.718 billion. As a firm ally of traditional cinema, Disney has to adjust its strategy and shift its focus to online. However, Disney’s future plans may depend on the final results of the video on demand of Mulan.
according to previous box office analyst Jeff Bok’s calculation, if there was no epidemic, Hua Mulan might have won at least $210 million in the United States and $750 million worldwide, with a net profit of $375 million. Now that the global film market is shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic, this vision will be dashed.
Burke believes that if Hua Mulan is shown in American Theaters, it will be a disaster. For Disney films, which are family entertainment, VOD is the best way to attract specific audiences.
if Hua Mulan can get the same revenue through VOD, that is, attracting more than 12.5 million users to pay for VOD, it is to create history and provide a path for other blockbusters of the same volume to learn from. But at this moment, no one can predict the outcome.
Allen appreciated Warner’s insistence on showing the creed in the cinema, saying it was a heroic feat for the cinema industry. He believes cinemas will never disappear, “there’s always more to watching on a 40 foot screen than on a 40 inch screen.”.
Jason killard, CEO of Warner media, said: “in the near future, people will go back to the gym, to the cinema, to the restaurant, and we will not succumb to the epidemic. But the epidemic did accelerate the change in the industry. “Hua Mulan” is a very pragmatic decision, and the decision of “creed” is based on the judgment of the film itself. We are very happy to cooperate with Nolan and we will continue to believe in the cinema business. ” Director Christopher Nolan is a staunch supporter of cinema films. He always insists on the premiere of “creed” in theaters, and does his best to appeal to the audience to support the cinema.
in China, Nolan is showing strong box office appeal. Inception earned 460 million yuan in 2010 and will be shown again on August 28. Nine days after its re premiere, Star Trek has grossed more than 840 million box office hits, surpassing new films such as 1917.
the performance of the Chinese market is crucial to the creed. As the first country to stabilize and normalize the prevention and control of the epidemic situation, as well as the world’s second largest film market, Hollywood places high hopes on Chinese audiences.
although the box office market is increasing in a weak trend, the expected retaliatory consumption behavior has not really come. Many people put their hopes on the upcoming domestic blockbuster “eight hundred”. If “eight hundred” can save the market, it will be possible to promote “creed” and “Hua Mulan” to achieve good box office results in the Chinese cinema market.