Fx168 financial news (North America) Thursday (August 13), Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) said that if the market included “relatively more optimistic U.S. GDP forecast”, the S & P 500 index may hit 3600 points. This is nearly 7% higher than the current trading price of 3376.35.
Goldman Sachs strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang said that if the US economy is generally expected to contract by 5% in 2020 and grow by 6.2% next year, real yield will rise sharply to the peak level of cyclical optimism in June.
Goldman Sachs said it used the US growth factor, which raised the indicator significantly in the early stages of reopening, but “reversed the previous increase” with more second waves of outbreaks. “Our U.S. growth factor basically stabilized at a low level at the end of June because during this time, the most affected U.S. states have adopted stricter blockades to control the spread of the virus,” Goldman said “And in the past two weeks, our US growth factor has risen sharply again and is now back near the peak in early June.”
Goldman Sachs also responded last week that the market underestimated the possibility of vaccines being produced by the end of this year and widely distributed by the second quarter of 2020. The vaccine is expected to be developed earlier than expected, prompting Goldman to raise its forecast for U.S. GDP growth next year to 6.2% from 5.6% earlier this week. “There has been some improvement in the news of US economic growth recently, with us data slightly better than initially expected after a partial reversal of plans to reopen parts of the US,” Goldman said
the company added: “however, we believe that changes in growth pricing may also reflect increased optimism about the future of early vaccines. Earlier this week, we raised our forecast for U.S. economic growth, taking into account the core issue of vaccine approval by the end of 2020 and widespread distribution in the second quarter of late 2021. ”
Goldman Sachs’s recent forecasts for the S & P 500 index are in line with those of other well-known market strategists. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni research, said this week that unprecedented stimulus measures and the bullish trend in the stock market will drive the stock market up another 5% by the end of this year and 14% by the end of 2021. He had previously said that if Sino US relations remain tense and the US economy cannot recover before 2022, then the US stock market may fall by 15% to 20%. But after that, he became optimistic about the stock market again.