GDP of 24 major countries in the world shrank by nearly 10% from April to June: only China has positive growth

The real GDP of 24 major countries in the world from April to June 2020 shrank by 9.1% year-on-year, with a decline rate of about 3.5 times that of the Lehman crisis, according to the nikkei.com.cn on the 20th. Among the 24 countries, only China, which has controlled the epidemic situation and turned to economic recovery earlier, has achieved positive growth, which once again highlights the importance of both epidemic prevention and economic activities. The “major countries” mentioned in the report refer to China, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada and 19 countries in the euro zone, totaling 24. Together, these countries account for two-thirds of world GDP. However, in order to observe the shrinking degree of economic scale caused by the epidemic situation compared with that in the same period of last year, this time, we compared it with the same period of last year. In 2009, when the impact of the Lehman crisis peaked, GDP shrank by 2.6% from January to March. < p > < p > according to the location information of smart phone users, Google analyzes the data of travel destinations. The more countries and regions adopt strict restrictions on going out for epidemic prevention, the more obvious the decline of GDP is. From April to June, Spain and the United Kingdom saw a 52% decrease in personnel travel (median), the most significant decrease among major countries, and the two countries also ranked in the top two in terms of GDP decline. According to the statistics of the World Tourism Council (WTTC), among the major countries, the highest proportion of tourism in GDP is Mexico (over 15%), and the second is Spain (more than 14%). The higher the dependence on tourism, the more obvious the decline of GDP. Spain has a large number of foreign tourists from June to September in previous years, but it has stopped accepting foreign tourists by the end of June this year. In June, visitors from abroad decreased by 97.7% year on year. Of the major countries, the only country with positive growth in April June was China (up 3.2%). In the form of enterprise activities, China resumed growth after one quarter. According to Japanese media, relying on national policies is more prominent, and private investment is still negative. The key to sustainability is whether the income and expenditure of households and the people who lack momentum can be benefited. < / P > < p > outside the major countries, Vietnam has also achieved positive growth. Due to the early implementation of epidemic prevention measures, the restrictions on going out were limited to about three weeks in April, which had a positive impact. Compared with before the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of people going out from April to June in Vietnam has been reduced to only 3%. < p > < p > the economist think tank, the research arm of the Economist magazine, predicts that the seven countries in Japan, the United States and Europe (G7) will fully resume month on month growth from July to September. However, in terms of the size of GDP, the United States is only at the level of 2017, Britain, France, Germany and Canada in 2016, Japan in 2012 and Italy in 1997, so normalization will take a long time. Before that, the world bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have issued relevant forecast reports to estimate the global economy and GDP of some countries and regions in 2020. The details are different, but the results are the same: global GDP growth will decline in 2020, and GDP growth in many countries will be negative. The International Monetary Fund released a new issue of the world economic outlook report on April 14. Compared with its latest forecast released in January, the agency cut global economic growth this year by the largest margin in history. It expects the global economy to shrink by 3% this year, the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On April 8, the World Trade Organization released its trade growth forecast for 2020-2021 and trade statistics for 2019. There is a small paragraph in the report that mentions the forecast of global GDP growth this year. In the case of optimistic trade data, the global economic growth rate will reach – 2.5% in 2020 and increase to 7.4% in 2021; while in a pessimistic situation, the global economic growth rate will be – 8.8% in 2020 and return to 5.9% next year – in any case, the global economic growth rate this year is negative. The novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic will lose 3.9 percentage points worldwide, according to the

World Bank report. Given the 2.9% growth rate of the global economy last year, the global GDP growth rate will be negative this year.