Crisis year attracts more attention. Will Powell make a surprise when the annual meeting of global central banks is held next week?

Every August, the Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks will be the focus of investors’ attention. This year, due to the impact of the new epidemic, the annual meeting of the central bank will be conducted online in the form of video and broadcast live to the public. It was the first annual gathering of the world’s top central bank officials and economists not to be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming’s mountain resort, since 1981. < / P > < p > for global central banks, this year is a special year, because unprecedented easing measures have brought global central banks close to policy limits. The market will focus on how global central banks respond to current and future challenges, and most importantly, how to exit. At present, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has confirmed that he will address the long-awaited “monetary policy framework assessment” at the Jackson Hole annual symposium next week, focusing on new inflation strategies. The speech is scheduled to air at 09:10 New York time on August 27. This speech will undoubtedly attract much attention. As worrisome low inflation and low interest rates erode the Fed’s ability to fight recession, the Fed conducted its first comprehensive framework assessment throughout 2019 and most of this year. Policymakers discussed a more relaxed approach to inflation, which sometimes requires inflation to exceed the 2% target in order to bring average results closer to that target. According to the minutes of the July 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released on Wednesday, officials are pushing for a new statement on longer-term goals and strategies, which will mark the completion of the strategy assessment. Officials said it was important to complete all changes to the statement in the near future. They said the move would help guide the committee’s future policy actions and communication. < / P > < p > Robert perli, a former Federal Reserve economist and partner at cornerstone macro LLC in Washington, D.C., “one possibility is that Powell will outline the committee’s considerations in the evaluation process and why, and then he may summarize what seems to be a consensus that inflation should be slightly above target, taking into account the average inflation rate.” However, some economists say it may be too early for Powell to make a clear announcement at next week’s meeting, which seems to replace the FOMC’s role before its next meeting, from September 15 to 16. < / P > < p > “Powell’s situation is very delicate,” says Michael Woodford, an economist at Columbia University who spoke at Jackson Hall’s annual meeting. “He may want to explain how the assessment of the framework is gradually reaching consensus, but will not be too clear about what they will announce after the September meeting.” < p > < p > the Federal Reserve first announced in 2012 that it would set the inflation rate target at 2%, while officials indicated that this means that no matter how far away they are from the target and how long they have missed the target, they will always adhere to the 2% target. However, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has failed to meet the target, with the inflation rate averaging only 1.4% since the introduction of the inflation target. Economists say the average target is designed to help bring inflation expectations back to the center by promising to exceed inflation to make up for the shortfall. The adjustment of the idea is less radical than the other options discussed in the long-term assessment, including negative interest rates. Although the strategy has been deployed in central banks in Europe and Japan, Fed officials have not taken it seriously as a viable approach in the US. The annual meeting of global central banks is known as the “barometer” of policy inflection point, because the unexpected remarks of the heavyweights at the meeting may cause huge waves in financial markets, especially in the crisis years! In 2009, the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, then president of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa, and then president of the European Central Bank, Jean Claude Trichet, used the annual meeting to say that they would work together to deal with the global financial crisis. In 2010, 2012 and 2014, the Federal Reserve disclosed policy information on quantitative easing at the annual meeting.