Lambs, when faced with massacres, will not resist and will only go to the slaughterhouse in silence; however, docility and cleverness can not get the butcher’s pity, but only become a dish of Chinese food. This is the cruel reality reflected in the American film the silent lamb.
recently, the United States is sharpening its sword against Tencent for “endangering national security” – US President trump issued a “presidential decree” to prohibit us companies / individuals from trading with tiktok’s parent company byte skipping or wechat (wechat overseas version) in the United States; and in the name of the so-called “net action”, in operators, app stores and apps In addition, several Chinese companies, such as Huawei, Baidu, Alibaba, China Mobile and China Telecom, are threatening the information security of the United States. More Chinese enterprises that have not been “targeted” are also feeling chilly. In the face of uncertainty, where should Chinese science and technology enterprises go?
a reporter from securities times · e company recently interviewed a number of senior executives of technology enterprises, experts in the field of science and technology, legal personages, university professors, etc. all parties agreed that although under the decree against Chinese enterprises, political factors are greater than legal factors, in the face of such unfair treatment, Chinese enterprises should not be “silent Lambs” and take the initiative to initiate litigation, and legal provisions can be cited It includes the “infringement” in the first amendment to the US Constitution, the “inviolability of private property” in the fifth amendment to the US Constitution, and the provision of reliable evidence for the president’s prohibition of trading in the defense products act of 1950.
for enterprises that have not been “targeted” by the United States, professionals suggest that they should take precautions before doing good deeds, reduce or suspend transactions in sensitive areas, try low-risk countries more, and consider suppliers from non-U.S. regions in addition to strengthening independent research and development for the use of relevant technologies. “The US strategy of suppressing China will not change. Do not have unrealistic illusions about the United States.” Experts stressed.
on August 5 local time, U.S. Secretary of state pompeio announced five major measures to establish a “clean network” in the United States. Among them, seven Chinese companies, including Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, Huawei, tiktok, China Mobile and China Telecom, were named to threaten the personal information security of American citizens. Pompeio also said efforts were being made to step up the removal of all “untrusted” Chinese applications from the U.S. digital network.
on the evening of August 6, trump signed an executive order, declaring that from September 20 (i.e. 45 days later), American companies would be prohibited from doing any business with byte hopping of tiktok parent company, and companies violating the order would be punished.
in response, on August 7, Beijing time, the byte skipping statement said, “the U.S. government has arbitrarily decided on the terms of the agreement in disregard of facts and does not follow due process of law, and even tries to interfere in the negotiation between private enterprises. If the U.S. government can’t give us justice, the company will go to U.S. courts. ” Tiktok will sue the trump administration as soon as Tuesday, according to the latest news.
Tencent also announced on the evening of the 7th that Tencent was reviewing the potential consequences of the executive order in order to better understand its impact on the group, and will issue further announcements in due course.
a number of senior Chinese and American lawyers told reporters of the securities times · e company that the administrative order issued by trump was vague in expression and unclear in scope. Specifically, there is an article that “45 days after the promulgation of this order, the Minister of Commerce will confirm the scope of the restricted transactions”. In other words, although the president of the United States banned all US entities from trading with Tencent and byte hopping, the limited scope of transactions was not clear.
in terms of revenue, Tencent, as the world’s largest game publisher, cooperates with several game companies in the United States. For example, riot games Inc., the famous game company that developed the League of heroes, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent. There are concerns that the decree will extend to business relationships with some of the largest US companies. After the market crash of the day, a US official clarified that the US president’s ban on Tencent was limited to transactions related to wechat. However, what is relevant remains in the hands of the U.S. Secretary of Commerce. For example, it is not clear whether Tencent uses the money earned by “League of heroes” to develop wechat business, which is within the scope of the ban.
in fact, tiktok was targeted by the United States before the release of “net action” by the United States. On July 31, trump said he would ban tiktok from operating in the United States, and then it came out that it might be taken over by Microsoft or another company. On August 2, pompeio said that the trump government will soon take measures against some Chinese software, including tiktok and wechat, which are considered to be a threat to the national security of the United States.
how much impact does the United States have on tiktok and its industrial chain? “Trump’s” ban “has a great impact on tiktok and its parent company’s byte hopping, which is equivalent to that byte skipping will force a well-trained” child “to be an adult to be sold or killed.” On August 9, Liu Xingliang, an Internet scholar and President of DCCI Internet Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from securities times · e company.
Liu Xingliang said that the U.S. Internet development environment is very mature, and the competition is also quite fierce. If Chinese Internet enterprises want to take root and improve in the U.S. Internet field, they must need a huge amount of investment. One of the reasons for tiktok’s small development in the United States is that it has invested a huge amount of advertising in Facebook and other areas.
“trump’s” ban “not only made tiktok’s huge investment in the U.S. market a bubble, but also forced byte skipping to give up a growing” child. ” Liu Xingliang said that although it is common for enterprises to be established to a certain extent and then sell them to other suppliers and strive for a good price, byte skipping is actually forced to sell tiktok to Microsoft. First, tiktok is in the stage of rapid development, and it is not because tiktok encounters a development bottleneck to sell its equity. Secondly, byte hopping has no price negotiation After all, if you choose not to sell, tiktok will be banned in the United States, and then tiktok will be worthless.
it is understood that India and the United States are the two major markets of tiktok. According to sensor tower data, as of February 2019, tiktok’s total global download volume has exceeded 1 billion. By the end of April 2020, this figure has exceeded 2 billion, including 165 million downloads in the United States, which is equivalent to half of the total population of the United States.
tiktok’s revenue is also rising when it is booming. Tiktok’s global revenue last year reached $176.9 million (about 1.24 billion yuan), five times that of the full year of 2018, including 36 million US dollars in US market revenue. In June 2020, tiktok attracted more than $90.7 million in global app store and Google play, 8.3 times the same period last year, higher than youtube, Netflix and Facebook. If calculated by 8.3 times of the same period last year, tiktok’s business revenue in the U.S. market will reach hundreds of millions this year. Byte hop internal has estimated that tiktok’s US revenue will reach US $1 billion in 2020.
one view is that Trump’s “ban” means that wechat will be completely banned by the United States like tiktok, and American users will not be able to use wechat. However, Tencent’s other businesses related to wechat in the United States, such as games, advertising, payment and investment, will not be affected. Other businesses can make payments or transactions through other channels, and wechat will not be able to use wechat from apple The company’s app store and Google play are off the shelves, so only a part of wechat users in the United States are affected.
another view is that this means that wechat, like Huawei, will be prohibited from doing any business with American companies. This means that not only American users will not be able to use wechat, but also Tencent’s other wechat related businesses in the United States, such as games, advertising, payment and investment, will also be affected. In addition, Apple’s app store and Google’s Google will also be affected Play will probably be taken off the shelves because it involves the cooperation between the two companies. Even if the wechat app on these two platforms does not incur relevant transaction costs, it is also a form of transaction, and both sides still have their own gains.
once Apple App store is removed from wechat, Apple’s business in China will suffer a heavy setback. According to questmobile, as of June 2020, Apple’s IOS terminals accounted for 21.6% of the domestic smart terminal market. According to the forecast of AI media consulting data, the number of smart phone users in China will reach 800 million by 2020, so it is estimated that the stock of domestic Apple iPhone may be nearly 200 million. Snowball’s recent micro blog survey showed that if Apple can’t install wechat, 94% of people choose to “change to another mobile phone and continue to use wechat.”.
However, if Google play platform is removed from wechat, it will have no impact at all, because overseas Android mobile phone users can still download APK installation through wechat official website and other channels. For domestic Android mobile phone users, the major mobile phone manufacturers use their own app stores and do not use Google’s GMS (Google Mobile Service), so they will not be affected at all.
“in terms of the literal meaning of Trump’s” ban “, we should ban wechat users in the United States, and probably won’t let Apple App store, Google play, etc. off the shelves of wechat.” In an interview with a reporter from securities times · e company, Liu Xingliang said that in general, wechat on the platform belongs to users to download applications for free, which is not a commercial transaction, and once it is off the shelves, Apple’s business in China will be greatly affected.
Liu Xingliang further added that Tencent wechat is mainly used by Chinese in the United States, with a low proportion in the United States. The total number of users in the U.S. market accounts for a very low proportion of all wechat users. Therefore, if wechat is disabled in the United States, it will have little impact on Tencent, while Tencent’s other wechat related businesses in the United States can support other payment methods. However, the specific impact still depends on the detailed rules of the ban.
according to the annual report of Tencent holdings in 2019, wechat and wechat continue to maintain a high level of user activity, and the number of active users and the length of user use are further improved. As of the first quarter of 2020, the number of combined wechat and wechat accounts was 1.203 billion.
how should Chinese enterprises cope with the fierce storm of “net net” in the United States? A number of lawyers told the reporters of securities times · e company that in the face of such unfair treatment, the articles involved in the prosecution mainly include “infringement” in the first amendment to the U.S. Constitution, the “inviolability of private property” in the fifth amendment to the constitution, and the provision of reliable evidence for the president’s prohibition of trading in the defense products act of 1950.
according to the first amendment of the United States Constitution, every individual has the right to choose to express any speech legally on any platform. On twitter, several certified American lawyers also said that “code is a kind of protected free speech”, and that all applications are software code in essence, and the president has no right to ban and ban.
Yang Yifei, legal doctor of Harvard University, believes that tiktok has become a popular we media communication platform like Facebook and twitter in the United States. The U.S. government’s targeted closure of a certain platform may constitute an improper expression of the content and way of expression