This article claims that Colleen Huber, a doctor of medicine in the United States, has found “shocking” results after calculation: the average death rate of the total population in the United States in the first 32 weeks of 2020 is actually the “lowest” in the United States in the past 10 years, and the second lowest in the “21 years since the beginning of the 21st century”, which is only higher than the figure in 2009. Novel coronavirus pneumonia, what is the case in 2020, is also cited by
, a WeChat doctor. “There is no epidemic in the United States in 2020,” he said. “A new influenza virus is not even a large influenza virus.” < / P > < p > in the comment section of this wechat article, many message users seem to be convinced by the “data” of the American “doctor of medicine”. Some people say that “the epidemic situation seems to be a big flu”, others say that “the truth is really in the hands of a few people”, and some people say that “the real plague is the public opinion that has killed chicken blood”. What is the truth of the matter? Is it true that the American “doctor of medicine” mentioned in this article and her argument that is totally contrary to the cognition of the mainstream society in the United States and China? After a simple investigation, Geng Zhige found that although there is such a “doctor of medicine” in the United States, she did publish a paper on August 12 claiming that the mortality rate in the United States this year is the lowest in the past 10 years, indicating that the epidemic is not serious at all. However, both her personal experience and the argument and argumentation process in her paper are extremely unreliable and cannot be tested, and there are obvious loopholes. < / P > < p > let’s talk about Colleen Huber, MD. According to a number of British and American mainstream media reports, he is a certified “natural therapy” doctor in the United States, and has a “natural therapy” clinic in Arizona. But instead of practicing medicine conscientiously and responsibly, she often exaggerates the efficacy of her controversial “natural therapy” and claims that she can “cure cancer”. She has always followed a group of far right conspiracy theorists in the United States to hype various “pseudo scientific conspiracy theories”, such as claiming that wearing masks can not resist the new coronavirus, but also cause “brain damage”. However, the paper she published on August 12 was forwarded by the domestic we media account, claiming that the epidemic situation in the United States is not serious at all, and the mortality rate is the lowest in the past 10 years (as shown in the figure below). Although she has also received a lot of attention on overseas social media “Twitter”, it has been forwarded nearly 300 times, and has also deceived many Americans, but there are two extremely serious articles in this paper Obvious loopholes. < / P > < p > What are the vulnerabilities? In this article entitled “is there really a pandemic?” Colleen Huber concludes that the mortality rate in the first 32 weeks of the United States is the lowest in the past 10 years. In fact, it is very simple to calculate the total number of deaths in the United States in the first 32 weeks by 32, and then divide by the total population of the United States. However, the problem is that she mistakenly mistook the data on the number of deaths and total deaths in the United States from February 1 to August 8 this year, which was updated by the Centers for Disease Control and prevention of the United States on August 10, this year (a total of 1627731 million people died). According to the latest update of the Centers for Disease Control and prevention on August 13, the total number of deaths from February 1 to August 8 in the United States has increased to 1.662833 million. The data in the figure is the data on August 10, when it was 162773100) < / P > < p > therefore, the “weekly average death toll” of the first 32 weeks of 2020 and the so-called “average weekly mortality rate of the total population” in her paper were calculated with the wrong data missing four weeks in January this year. How can we get accurate results for this paper that has made mistakes in data from the source? Therefore, according to Colleen Huber’s method of calculation, it is logical for her to divide 1627731 people by 28 weeks (i.e. 32-4), and then divide by the total population of 33120871.7 million in the United States. In this way, the average total mortality rate of the line week should be about 0.017552%, and the average weekly death toll should be about 5813300, instead of the 0.015358% and 5086700 that she had miscalculated. < / P > < p > and this means that the average weekly death toll and the total weekly mortality rate in the 28 weeks of 2020 in the United States are the highest in the past 10 years and even in the past 20 years! < / P > < p > this is because, according to the rough mortality rate of the United States published by the CDC from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2019, the mortality rate in the United States is not equal in the four quarters of a year, but there is a large fluctuation. The mortality rates in the first and fourth quarters of each year are higher, because these two quarters cover the “flu season” (November February) of the United States, while the mortality rates in the second and third quarters are relatively low. Therefore, there is no data on the peak period of influenza mortality in January in the past year, and there is no data on the rising mortality rate in the fourth quarter of this year. Just take the mortality rate from February 1 to August 8, which is the interval in which the mortality rate in the United States began to decline in the past four quarters, it is a kind of “unequal” comparison.
but novel coronavirus pneumonia is a very ironic thing. Because the outbreak and runaway of the new crown pneumonia outbreak this year led to the death rate in February 1st, which was lower in the past year than in August 8th. The novel coronavirus pneumonia data show that the mortality rate of the US pneumonia and influenza in 2016 -2019 is almost the same as that of the tenth week (March). The mortality rate of the US pneumonia and influenza has increased in the tenth week of this year, and it has reached the top in about twentieth weeks, and it has rebounded in thirtieth weeks. < p > < p > this almost indicates that, if we include the death data of the United States in January this year and the death data after the arrival of the influenza season in 2020 in the United States, the mortality rate in the four quarters of 2020 will not only set the highest record since the 21st century, but also far exceed all the previous 20 years’ records This shows how disrespectful are conspiracy theorists like Colleen Huber in the United States who are still changing their concepts, distorting the truth of the epidemic, saying that the epidemic is not serious, and even asking people not to wear masks, how disrespectful are they to human rights and human lives! But ironically, she used the “UN Universal Declaration of human rights” as her social media cover. Novel coronavirus pneumonia,
is even more sad, these people are still strong supporters of the Trump administration in the United States, which may explain why the new crown pneumonia outbreak in the United States will be out of control. In the end, perhaps realizing how bad her argument is, Colleen Huber withdrew her article this morning claiming that the U.S. mortality rate in 2020 is the “lowest” in the past 10 years, although in her withdrawal statement, she still quibbled that she was “missing the data.”.