Biden is nominated for president! Wall Street tycoons “bet” ahead of time, US stocks in danger?

Former Vice President Joe Biden formally accepted the presidential nomination in a speech at the National Congress on the 20th, according to national public radio. after announcing the results of the vote count in North Carolina, Biden won 2448 party representative votes, exceeding the 2374 votes required for nomination. Biden officially became a candidate for the U.S. presidential election in 2020. Biden competed with trump, a 74 year old Republican, in the presidential election on November 3. the US election is naturally one of the biggest events in 2020. With Biden officially becoming a candidate, more and more analysts begin to predict what impact the trend of US stocks will be. Some analysts believe that some people in the US stock market have already made an election bet. Max anderl, head of centralized alpha equity at UBS asset management, said: “since the beginning of the summer, the market has become more focused on elections and stock market prices have responded, for example, green energy has risen with Biden’s popularity.” According to Lamar villere, a fund manager at Ville & Co., the election effect will be stronger and stronger as time approaches November. He said his company was prepared to sell shares, retain up to 20 per cent of cash, and then wait for the election to change before readjusting the portfolio. For example, Biden advocates strengthening the supervision of enterprises, increasing taxes on the rich and supporting green energy. At present, the market’s influence on US stocks is also controversial. the prevailing view is that these new policies will depress the stock market. Marc lasry, a longtime donor, said that while he didn’t think Wall Street was starting to worry about the November election, the stock market would be affected if Biden won while regaining control of both houses of Congress. “although Biden’s proposals to raise corporate taxes and promote clean energy could hurt some stock markets. But compared with the turmoil of the trump era, the Biden administration will bring welcome stability. ” some people think that it is necessary to judge according to different industries. LORI calvasina, head of US equity strategy, said most of her company’s analysts were not optimistic about the impact of Biden’s agenda on the industries they covered. “our analysts believe that Biden’s election will be good for utilities, but it will be bad news for energy, Consumer Discretionary goods, industrial and financial stocks.” There are a lot of bearish industries, including cars, biotechnology, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, banking, insurance and restaurants, added analyst Marley Jay. 02 some people think that this black swan is more dangerous than who will be president. Of course, there are also a group of people who think that who is the president has little impact on US stocks, and other unexpected Black Swan events (such as election results being disputed) are the most dangerous. In an interview with CNBC, analyst Kevin O’Leary pointed out that if former Vice President Biden was elected as the next president in November, he would not damage the stock market. “If Biden is elected, he will put the economic loss and employment loss caused by the epidemic as a top priority, so as to curb legislative actions that may become a priority (such as tax reform, green energy reform, etc.), Leary said Thomas McLoughlin, head of the Americas fixed income division of UBS global wealth management, wrote in a report that there is no doubt that if Biden is elected, investors will have to work hard to deal with the policy uncertainty brought about by this, and the volatility of the stock market will increase, but it is uncertain whether it is up or down at present. McLoughlin stressed that the market was more averse to accidents than who was president. This year’s election may be the most litigious in history, and when the election results are disputed, U.S. stocks will be more severely hit. In the two weeks after the election, the S & P 500 fell by about 6%, while the Dow fell by about 5%. “when Biden wins the election, the closer Biden and trump get, the more likely trump will question the legitimacy of the results. If Biden wins by a narrow margin, the result could lead to serious turbulence. And as that worry grows, we see a risk of the dollar falling. ”