Analysts: the deadlock in the US election may be Wall Street’s “nightmare”

His opponent, former Vice President Biden, warned that trump might not voluntarily leave the White House. Trump has yet to confirm whether he will accept an unfavorable election result if he loses. for investors, the protracted debate over the election results will be a nightmare as markets hate uncertainty. What is more uncertain than a controversial election? The election raised questions about the peaceful transfer of power in the world’s largest economy. David kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cumberland advisors, said: “there is a disturbing concern now.” The outbreak has made the situation even more chaotic, with many states voting by mail to ensure that Americans who don’t want to be exposed to coronavirus have a way to get their votes counted. “will the election results of several states that rely heavily on postal ballots prompt trump to claim fraud because the results of these States will be very close?” Greg valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF investments, wrote in a report to clients last week. “This is the greatest fear.” perhaps the best scenario for Wall Street would be for trump to be re elected. In Trump’s first years in office, the stock market rose sharply, in part because of his government’s support for low taxes and loose regulation. However, Trump’s trade policy is not so popular among investors and sometimes leads to stock market crash. However, the increase in Biden’s approval rating in the poll has little impact on the market. Although Biden overtook trump as the most popular bet in the gaming market, the stock market rebounded in the spring and summer of this year. although Biden’s proposals to raise corporate taxes and promote clean energy development may damage some stock markets, analysts believe that this will not change the market trend. “the market can tolerate the blue wave, even though taxes will increase and things will change.” “The market is fed up with chaotic government,” kotok said At this point, few on Wall Street would be shocked if the election results were not immediately available. There is reason to think that counting votes takes time, especially in a close election. Todd Jablonski, chief investment officer of principal global asset allocation, said: “the absence of immediate results from this autumn’s US election seems unlikely to panic capital markets.” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at INVESCO, said, “I think the worst outcome will be a prolonged stalemate around the election results.” However, she added that it might not have a “significant” impact on the market. Thomas McLoughlin, head of fixed income in the Americas at UBS global wealth management, said investors could be flocking to safe haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries if the US election is controversial. “investors should be prepared for volatility caused by uncertain results. The market is averse to uncertainty, “McLaughlin wrote in a report to clients this week. the problem now is that there is little historical background to guide investors in how to face contested elections. The most similar example is the “vote counting dispute” that took place in Florida in 2000, when Al Gore and George W. Bush ran. It was not until December 13, nearly six weeks after the election, that Gore backed down in a Supreme Court ruling. During this period, investors are keeping a close eye on short-term financial market movements, and this confrontation has obviously scared them. According to RBC Capital Markets, the S & P 500 index fell nearly 12 per cent from the close of election day to its low on December 20. Gold prices, on the other hand, rose sharply. Unlike Bush and gore, Trump’s behavior is unpredictable. He often breaks the rules and challenges the system. It is rare for Gore to admit that the outcome of the election will be a challenge to Mr. trump before he takes office. as the American media pointed out earlier this month, “imagine not just another Florida, but multiple Florida. It’s not just one lawsuit, it’s a lot of litigation. ” the reality is that it’s not two restricted candidates hiding out of sight and leaving the fight to their agents; it’s the current president of the United States constantly tweeting in the Oval Office and seeking to use his power to intervene. When asked whether the president would accept the election results unless he won, Kayleigh mcenany, the White House press secretary, said, “the president always said he would see what happened and make a decision.” Then, will the real economy be shaken? Yes, a controversial election may unsettle investors and even shake consumer confidence, but the real test will be whether this political farce will derail a fragile economy from a wide-ranging recession. Still, analysts say it is best for long-term investors not to overreact to election related turmoil. “The impact of the disputed election on the economy will be negligible,” said Mr. Hooper of Kingsoft group. Even if it does slow the recovery, it will not change the real driver of the US stock market in the near future: unprecedented easing from the Federal Reserve.