According to standard & Poor’s global market intelligence data, as of August 9, 424 large U.S. companies have filed for bankruptcy, more than in any comparable period since 2010. More than 3600 U.S. companies filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of this year, up 26% from the same period last year, according to epiqglobal, a legal services firm. These data show that the current economic situation of the United States is not optimistic, and it is in the most serious situation since the great depression in 1929. The macro-economic data of the U.S. Department of commerce also supports this point: the growth rate of U.S. GDP in the first quarter was – 5%, and the situation deteriorated further in the second quarter, with a historical contraction of – 32.5%. During the financial crisis before 2007-2009, the biggest drop was only 8.4%. < / P > < p > the most direct cause of such a bad economic situation is, of course, the current new epidemic. Due to the lax efforts of the US government in epidemic prevention and the value that some people prefer to get sick rather than abide by social distance, the number of infected and dead people in the United States is still high. Due to the shrinking demand for services and goods during the epidemic period, personal consumption expenditure, which accounted for 70% of the US economic activity, fell by 34.6% in the second quarter, becoming an important factor affecting the economy. In addition, the real economy of the United States has actually been in a state of depression for a long time: a large number of manufacturing jobs have been transferred to the third world countries, resulting in the fall of the blue collar middle class, resulting in the so-called “rust belt”; excessive financial prosperity has caused obvious crowding out effect on the real economy, accelerating the outsourcing and transfer trend of manufacturing industry; debt is out of control, especially for the public All kinds of debts, such as credit truck loan, student loan and so on, are under pressure. < / P > < p > the epidemic only exacerbated the above-mentioned crisis, and to some extent even became a “cover up” to cover up the economic problems of the United States. Politicians, enterprises and people can take the epidemic situation as an excuse for their plight. < / P > < p > in contrast, the US stock market is booming. In March this year, U.S. stocks experienced three fusions in eight days, but since April, it has started a big rise mode. The NASDAQ index has risen from the lowest 6800 points in March to 11000 points at present, and the Dow Jones index has risen from 18000 points to nearly 28000 points at present. The market value of many enterprises has reached a record high, including Boeing, which has cancelled orders more than new orders for many consecutive months. The main reasons are as follows: first, the Federal Reserve has opened the mode of unlimited quantitative easing, pushing the interest rate to zero, and Purchasing Treasury bonds and corporate bonds on a large scale in the market. Many large enterprises continue to buy back their stocks in the market with cheap funds, thus further pushing up the stock prices; second, the five major technology companies, alphabet, Facebook, apple, Microsoft and The market value of Amazon now accounts for 25% of the market value of S & P 500 companies. The performance of these five companies has not been affected by the epidemic, but has expanded to a certain extent. Thirdly, under the epidemic situation, a large group of retail investors has emerged in the United States, whose capital flow has accounted for 18.5%, which is about twice that of 10 years ago.
on the one hand, the persistence of bubbles means the widening gap between the rich and the poor, because those who can grasp the stock market opportunities are surely those businesses and individuals who are not bad money. Since March, the wealth of the rich with more than $1 billion has increased by 21.5% due to the soaring stock market, and the wealth of the top five tycoons has soared by 26%, while enterprises have lost more than 20 million jobs and 44 million people have applied for unemployment relief.
, on the other hand, the bull market that is supported by quantitative easing is not sustainable. The bubble will burst sooner or later. By that time, what will be the worst of the US economy, and it is really hard to say. However, this situation is also a wake-up call for American politicians: in an increasingly irrational and uncertain political environment, the economy is inevitably “implicated”. What the United States needs now is not only the adjustment of the stock market, but also the blood transfusion of the real economy. Instead, it fundamentally returns to stable expectations, respects market rules, and respects common sense and rules.