A few days ago, a service agreement of Microsoft described the result caused by force majeure as “no responsibility or obligation”. This was interpreted by some we media as that Microsoft urgently revised the agreement, “it will not be responsible for the interruption of the supply of windows in China”. Subsequently, Microsoft China publicly denied the rumor of “cut off supply” and stated that it would continue to serve Chinese users. < / P > < p > the release date of the agreement update under the media report is August 1, and the effective date is October 1, 2020. However, these agreements are not the latest content of Microsoft’s agreement, but have been released on July 1, 2019. Not only that, some industry insiders pointed out that Microsoft had related descriptions as early as 2016, and similar descriptions were also found in agreements in other countries. < / P > < p > Microsoft has changed the service agreement several times, and a summary of the changes will be listed each time. The latest changes are related to the service and privacy content. In the current environment, the market is more worried about changes in the international environment. Some people in the industry believe that since the prism door, the view of using domestic software and hardware to replace foreign products has been the focus of discussion in the industry. Microsoft, founded in 1975, set up a representative office in Beijing in 1992. In 1995, after the establishment of Microsoft (China) Co., Ltd., Microsoft set up R & D institutions and technical support service organizations in China. In 2000, Microsoft China began to strengthen its investment and cooperation in the local software industry. In 2014, Microsoft announced that Windows XP will still provide service security for Chinese users. < / P > < p > Microsoft has been in a crisis of trust. In June 2013, according to the documents provided by Edward Snowden, a former employee of the National Security Agency (NSA), multinational media reported a secret project named “prism” jointly launched by NSA and the Federal Bureau of investigation in 2007. The content of the project triggered a multi-national chain reaction because of its involvement in eavesdropping. Microsoft, Google, apple and other U.S. technology companies are involved in it, causing international attention. In July 2014, Microsoft was investigated by the Chinese government after Cisco, IBM and Qualcomm. At the same time, the staff of the State Administration for Industry and commerce also paid a surprise visit to Microsoft’s offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu, asking questions and taking away some relevant documents. The exposure of prism door caused safety concerns. In 2014, the outline of promoting the development of domestic integrated circuit industry was officially announced, which defines the integrated circuit industry as the core of the information technology industry, and emphasizes the strategic and fundamental position of safeguarding national security. At the same time, the operating system is also regarded as the focus of independent research and development. Li Mingshu, then director of the Software Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, once said that the system was aimed at “breaking the monopoly of Microsoft, apple and Google in the field of basic software” against a domestic operating system called cos. However, the promotion of independent research and development of operating systems has already begun. Ni Guangnan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, has been promoting the domestic open source software based on Linux since 1999. In 2014, he repeatedly called on Microsoft’s operating system not conducive to national information security, and advocated and established an industry alliance. He has participated in several press conferences of domestic operating systems, and once said that “if we do not use the operating system independently developed by China, and the key to the back door of the system is always in the hands of others, then China’s information security will not be guaranteed, and objectively, it will leave opportunities for monitoring plans such as” prism door “. According to media reports, some industry insiders once said that after the government’s high-level instructions, the central government had issued an internal order requiring all ministries and commissions to replace Microsoft Windows operating system with domestic operating system at a certain proportion every year, which would reach 15%. However, with the warming of Sino US relations, the voice of domestic substitution has weakened. < p > < p > in September 2016, CETC and Microsoft announced the formal establishment of the joint venture Shenzhou Netcom Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Shenzhou Netcom”), and the two companies sent high-level personnel to each other, and held the first board meeting of the first session. According to the official website of shenzhou.com, the government version of windows 10 was officially listed in the government procurement directory of central government and central government agencies in November 2017. The government version has been deployed in many key information infrastructure users, such as customs, large-scale energy central enterprises, and government agencies at all levels. < / P > < p > some people in the industry have told shell finance reporter of Beijing news that the government version is a localized replacement of the security module in Microsoft’s original operating system. Not only that, according to the government’s requirement that data should not be exported, the version of the operating system deleted cloud services, but also deleted some entertainment and game functions after the transformation. Some industry insiders told shell finance reporter of Beijing news that in 2019, some state-owned enterprises and other relevant departments received a notice requiring that all foreign software be cleared around 2022. But the news has not yet formed an official announcement. According to StatCounter, as of November 2019, windows accounted for 87.96% of China’s desktop operating system market, 8.24% of OS X market share, and 0.89% of Linux market share. < p > < p > affected by Microsoft’s “cut off supply” report, the domestic operating system sector strengthened on August 10, and Jinshan office rose by more than 3.2%. This office software service provider recently released “office mode”, mainly for party and government users. The latter can complete official document writing, cooperation, typesetting and other work in one end of WPS, and directly print out the documents that meet the national official document standards. Dongxing Securities believes that the launch of the product will help improve the efficiency of official document writing and output of Party and government organs, and is an important milestone in the innovation of domestic office software. < p > < p > at present, the main basis for securities companies to promote localization is the triple price drop of innovation cycle, policy cycle and capital cycle. According to Guosheng securities research paper, the innovation cycle with 5g, cloud, artificial intelligence and wearable as the core is continuous; the state has repeatedly stressed supporting the technology industry and reshaping the domestic industry chain; the launch of the science and technology innovation board has led to the rise of the leader, enhancing the self-confidence in Science and technology, and the long-term development space of a number of hard core assets is clear. Huachuang securities listed companies with relevant capabilities such as Chengmai technology, China software, Taiji and China Great Wall. At the beginning of 2020, China software has merged the bid winning software and Tianjin Qilin, and the two domestic operating systems have been unified. < / P > < p > how much impetus does the rumor of Microsoft’s “cut off supply” have on localization substitution? A senior executive of a leading domestic IT industry company told the Beijing news that there is a risk of changing the terms, and Microsoft also needs to comply in the United States, so the threat is objective.